稳增长与防风险:我国宏观经济政策重心转换的实践与效果评估

Stabilizing Growth and Preventing Risks: Practice and Effectiveness Assessment of China’s Macro Economic Policy Shift in Focus

2008年金融危机以来,我国宏观经济政策的实践可总结为“稳增长、防风险”的双底线思维。基于引入债务因素的RCK模型,从理论层面推导负债与经济增长的关系,结果表明负债扩张能够促进经济增长的必要条件是资产回报率显著高于潜在经济增速,为宏观操作双底线思维的提出提供了理论依据。基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的实证检验发现,稳增长政策与去杠杆政策对长期经济增长是有益的。2018年底宏观经济政策重心再次转向稳增长,但该轮杠杆率上升并未能促进长期经济增速的提高,实证结论与理论推论基本一致。新冠肺炎疫情以来我国的宏观调控政策在实施节奏上或存在一定的“错位效应”。因此,一方面,我国未来的宏观经济政策在较长时间段内仍然需要坚持稳增长与防风险的双底线思维;另一方面,应通过积极降低企业成本、加大经济结构调整以及促进科创要素发挥作用等措施加快引导资产回报率上行,扩大我国宏观经济政策的操作空间。

Since the 2008 financial crisis,China’s macro economic policy can be summarized as the double bottom line thinking of“stable growth and risk prevention”.Based on RCK model,the paper,from theoretical level,studied the relationship between debt and economic growth and found that the necessary condition for debt expansion to promote economic growth is that the return on assets is significantly higher than the potential economic growth rate,thus providing theoretical basis for the double bottom line thinking.Based on the TVP-SV-VAR model for empirical testing,it is found that the stable growth policy and the deleveraging policy were beneficial to long-term economic growth.The macro economic policy focus shifted to stable growth again at the end of 2018,but that round of leverage increase did not promote long-term economic growth,and the empirical conclusion is basically consistent with the theoretical inference.Since the outbreak of COVID-19,China’s macro economic policy have had some disposition effect.Therefore,we should,on the one hand,stick to the principle of“stable growth and risk prevention”;on the other hand,we should lower cost of enterprises,strengthen economic restructuring,give full play to science and innovation,increase return on assets,so as to expand China’s macro economic policy operating space.