面向国土空间规划实施监督的监测评估预警模型体系研究

Research on model system of monitoring-evaluation-warning for implementation supervision of territory spatial planning

国土空间规划监测评估预警是监督规划实施管理、保障规划实施成效的重要手段,也是实现“可感知、能学习、善治理、自适应”智慧规划转型的关键支撑。针对当前国土空间规划监测评估预警研究重机制、轻理论,以及缺乏一套科学可用的监测评估预警技术方法支撑的不足,在系统分析国土空间规划监测评估预警目标与内涵的基础上,构建以人工智能(Artificial Intelligence)、大数据(Big Data)、云计算(Cloud Computing)等新型信息技术(“ABC”技术)为支撑,覆盖国土空间规划“监测—评估—预警”业务全生命周期的应用模型体系,并结合信息系统建设案例,介绍了基于“ABC”技术的国土空间规划监测评估预警模型体系对实现各地国土空间规划“动态监测、精准评估、及时预警”的重要支撑作用。

The monitoring-evaluation-warning of territory spatial planning is not only an important means to supervise and ensure the effectiveness of spatial planning implementation,but also a key support for the evolution of smart planning that is "perceptible, learnable,governable and adaptive". At present, research on monitoring-evaluation-warning of national spatial planning focuses more on mechanism rather than theory, what’s more important is that we are lack of a set of scientifically available monitoring-evaluation-warning techniques. In order to solve the above problems, this paper systematically analyzes and discusses the objectives and connotation of monitoring-evaluation-warning of national spatial planning, and on this basis, it constructs an application model system that covers the whole life cycle of monitoring-evaluation-warning of territory spatial planning business supported by new information technologies( "ABC" technology), such as artificial intelligence, big data and cloud computing. Finally, combined with the case of information system construction, the paper introduces the important supporting role of monitoring-evaluation-warning of territory spatial planning model system based on "ABC" technology to realize the territory spatial planning "dynamic monitoring, accurate evaluation and timely early warning". The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1) Monitoring, evaluation and early warning of territory spatial planning are indispensable technical links in the implementation and supervision of spatial planning, and the three are logically progressive and technologically support each other.(2) Three kinds of model systems are put forward: the dynamic perception and rapid identification model system of spatial information integrated with multi-source big data, the comprehensive evaluation model system coupling human activities and natural environment,and the land simulation and prediction model system based on artificial intelligence.(3) The practical application of three kinds of models in the information platform such as the territorial space change monitoring system, the smart planning big data decision-making platform and the’Inteplan’ information system for implementation and supervision of spatial planning embodies the important role of the model in territorial space control and governance as well as natural resources supervision.