环境规制、绿色技术创新与经济高质量发展——基于半参数空间面板VAR模型

Environmental regulation,green technological innovation and high-quality economic development:Based on the semi-parametric panel space vector autoregression model

如何有效发挥环境规制作用,倒逼企业进行绿色技术创新,进而推动经济高质量发展?文章基于2004—2020年中国30个省份的面板数据,构建半参数空间面板向量自回归模型(SSPVAR),运用时空脉冲响应函数和导数散点图刻画环境规制、绿色技术创新与经济高质量发展三者之间的时空传导效应,并探析外商直接投资作为外生变量的冲击影响。结果表明:(1)环境规制、绿色技术创新与经济高质量发展之间存在明显的两两互动关系和区域异质性。环境规制和经济高质量发展都具有显著的正向自强化效应和正向空间溢出效应,而绿色技术创新具有微弱的负向空间溢出效应;(2)环境规制和和绿色技术创新均对经济高质量发展存在“长期—短期”非一致性效应,短期内均抑制本地和邻地经济高质量发展,但长期来看均存在明显的促进作用。经济高质量发展能够降低本地和邻地环境规制力度,促进本地绿色技术创新,但通过“吸虹效应”对邻地产生抑制作用。(3)环境规制对绿色技术创新存在“本地—邻地”非一致性效应,在本地表现出先抑后扬的“U”型关系,在邻地则表现出先促进后抑制的倒“U”型关系。绿色技术创新会反作用于环境规制,短期内降低对本地和邻地的环境规制力度,长期来看环境规制力度不会下降。(4)外商直接投资对环境规制、绿色技术创新、经济高质量发展都存在显著的非线性关系。

How to effectively exert the role of environmental regulation and force enterprises to carry out green technology innovation,so as to promote high-quality economic development?Based on 2004-2020 panel data of 30 provinces in China,this paper constructs a semi-parametric space panel vector autoregression model(SSPVAR),and uses the spatio-temporal impulse response function and derivative scatter plot to depict the spatio-temporal conduction effects among environmental regulation,green technology innovation and high-quality economic development.It also analyzes the impact of foreign direct investment as the exogenous variable.The results show that:(1) There is an obvious pairwise interaction and regional heterogeneity among environmental regulation,green technology innovation and high-quality economic development.Both environmental regulation and high-quality economic development have significant positive self-reinforcing effect and positive spatial spillover effect,while green technology innovation has weak negative spatial spillover effect.(2) Both environmental regulation and green technology innovation have a “long-short-term” inconsistent effect on high-quality economic development,which inhibit the high-quality economic development of local and neighboring areas in the short term,but promote it in the long term.High-quality economic development reduces the intensity of local and neighboring environmental regulations,and promotes local green technology innovation,but inhibits neighboring areas through the “rainbow effect”.(3) Environmental regulation has a “local-neighborhood” inconsistence effect on green technology innovation,showing a “U-shaped” relationship of a fall-rise pattern in local areas,and an inverted “U-shaped” relationship of a rise-fall pattern in neighboring areas.Green technology innovation will react to environmental regulation,reducing the intensity of the environmental regulation on local and neighboring areas in the short term,but this reaction doesn’t work in the long term.(4) Foreign direct investment has a significant nonlinear relationship with environmental regulation,green technology innovation and high-quality economic development.