考虑顾客有限理性的汽车租赁需求无约束估计方法

Unconstrained Estimation Method of Car Rental Demand Considering Customer Bounded Rationality

租车系统的预订数据不能代表顾客真实需求,库存控制导致供需不匹配,也会产生需求的“溢出”和“再现”。无约束估计多以短视型或策略型为假设,导致顾客的有限理性行为没有被充分考虑。以多价格等级车型的租赁需求为研究对象,基于顾客的有限理性形成租赁决策,用Logit模型分析顾客选择行为,结合前景理论的价值函数求得顾客效用,以分析需求转移行为,实现无约束估计。算例表明,多车型Spill改进模型能有效避免需求高估,并解释真实需求对收益的影响程度,存量控制收益提高了0.81%。

The reservation data of the car rental system cannot represent the real demand of customers. Inventory control leads to the mismatch between supply and demand, and also produces the "overflow" and "reappearance" of demand.Unconstrained estimation usually takes short-sighted or strategic assumptions, which results in insufficient consideration of bounded rational behavior of customers. Taking the car rental demand of multi-price class as the research object, decision is formed based on the bounded rationality of customers. The customer choice behavior is analyzed by Logit model, and the customer utility is obtained by combining the value function of prospect theory, so as to analyze the demand transfer behavior and realize unconstrained estimation. The calculation example shows that the multi-price class spill improved model can effectively avoid demand overestimation, and explain the impact of real demand on revenue. The stock control revenue is increased by 0.81%.