报童问题的“均值偏向”效应研究综述

A Review of the Pull-to-Center Effect in the Newsvendor Problem

2000年,Schweitzer等在有关报童模型的实验中发现,有限理性的报童所决策的订货量存在“均值偏向(pullto-center)”效应。之后,在大量的实验和理论研究中,“均值偏向”效应也被反复观测到。本文首先对2000~2021年间顶级期刊发表的探究“均值偏向”原因的文献,从锚定和不充分调整启发式、最小化事后库存误差、近因效应、过度自信、框架依赖、心理账户、参考点等方面进行总结分析。其次,根据个体对认知信息的加工特点,将决策过程划分为信息获取、信息编辑和信息评估3个阶段,并对引起“均值偏向”效应的偏差因素进行分类。研究表明,目前对引起“均值偏向”效应的偏差因素的探究,主要集中在信息编辑阶段。最后,本文探讨了该领域未来值得关注的研究方向。

In 2000, Schweitzer and Cachon reported for the first time the pull-to-center(PTC) effect in the ordering decisions of the bounded newsvendor. Since then, the PTC effect has attracted more and more attention and been widely observed in a large body of experimental and theoretical studies. In this review, the existing literature about the cause of PTC effect from 2000 to 2021, including anchoring and insufficient adjustment heuristics, minimizing ex-post inventory error, recency effect, overconfidence, framing dependence, mental accounting and reference point aspects are summarized.Then, according to the characteristics of how individuals process cognitive information, these behavioral theories and biases leading to the PTC effect are classified into three phases, namely, information acquiring phase, information editing phase and information evaluation phase. The research shows that the current exploration of the PTC effect has mainly focused on the information editing stage. Finally, some potential topics for the future research are proposed.