数字普惠金融能否有效促进碳减排?——基于阶段性效应与区域异质性视角

Can Digital Inclusive Finance Reduce Carbon Emissions?——From the Perspective of Threshold Effect and Regional Heterogeneity

在理论分析数字普惠金融对碳排放影响的基础上,基于2011—2020年中国30个省份的面板数据实证检验数字普惠金融对碳排放的影响,并着重研究其中的阶段性效应与区域异质性。研究结果表明:当前中国数字普惠金融总体上有利于减少碳排放,推动低碳发展;当以数字普惠金融为门槛变量时,数字普惠金融对碳排放先是抑制后为促进,最后又转为抑制;当以城镇化作为门槛变量时,数字普惠金融的碳减排效应也显示出先抑制后促进再抑制的阶段性特征;数字普惠金融与碳排放之间关系存在显著的区域异质性,相比于东部地区来说,中西部地区数字普惠金融对减少碳排放的积极作用更为显著。

Based on the analysis of the mechanism of the effect of digital inclusive finance on carbon emissions,this paper empirically examines and analyzes the impact of digital inclusive finance on carbon emissions using panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2020,and focuses on the nonlinear effects and regional heterogeneity.It is found that the current digital inclusive finance in China is generally conducive to reducing carbon emissions and promoting low-carbon economic development.When digital inclusive finance is used as the threshold variable,digital inclusive finance first inhibits,then promotes,and finally turns to inhibitory effect on carbon emissions;when urbanization is used as the threshold variable,the carbon emission reduction effect of digital inclusive finance also shows stage characteristics.There is significant regional heterogeneity in the relationship between digital inclusive finance and carbon emissions:the positive effect of digital inclusive finance on reducing carbon emissions is more significant in the central and western regions compared to the eastern regions.