基于改进EAHP-正态云模型的尾矿库溃坝风险评价

Risk Assessment of Tailing Dam Break Based on Improved EAHP Normal Cloud Model

针对尾矿库溃坝风险专家群决策评价中的主观随意性和语言模糊性,以及传统层次分析法采用“点”数据或“刚性”数据构造判断矩阵与实际情况不符等问题,将可拓集合理论以及物元理论与之相结合,并考虑到不同专家对指标重要性赋值结果可能与专家群体综合评判结果间的离异程度较大等客观因素,提出了一种可考虑专家客观权重系数的改进可拓层次分析法,同时利用正态云模型在处理指标随机性和模糊性等方面的独特优势,构建了一种基于改进EAHP-正态云理论的尾矿库溃坝风险评价方法.实例验证表明,该工程漫顶溃决、渗流破坏和管理因素方面均处于安全状态,失稳溃决方面处于较安全状态,整体上处于安全状态,当属正常库,与工程实际相吻合,该方法可有效提升尾矿库评价指标权重群决策结果的客观性和准确性,为该工程日后安全监测的重点及除险加固方案的制定提供参考.

For the tailing dam break risk assessment,the decision-making evaluation of risk expert group method has subjective randomness and language fuzziness.The traditional analytic hierarchy process using"point"data or"rigid"data to construct the judgment matrix is not consistent with the actual situation.The extension set theory and matter-element theory are combined to improve an extension analytic hierarchy process.The objective factors such as the large degree of deviation between the evaluation results of index importance assigned by different experts and the comprehensive evaluation results of expert group can be considered.At the same time,using the unique advantages of normal cloud model in dealing with the randomness and fuzziness of indicators,a dam break risk evaluation method of tailing pond based on improved EAHP normal cloud theory is constructed.The model verification shows that the method can effectively improve the objectivity and accuracy of the decision-making results of the evaluation index weight group of the tailing pond.The overtopping collapse,seepage damage and management factors of the project are in a safe state.The instability collapse is in a less safe state.The whole dam is in a safe state,which is in a normal condition and is consistent with the engineering practice.The proposed method is reliable and has benefit for dam safety monitoring and reinforcement in the future.