基于修正证据理论的配电电缆健康状态评估

State-of-health assessment of distribution cables based on modified evidence theory

配电电缆线路在配电网中占有很大的比例,对其进行状态检修是保证供电可靠性的有效手段。通过对电缆的健康状态进行评估,可以科学的制定检修策略,提高检修的效率。提出了一种电缆健康状态评估的方法,建立了电缆健康状态评估模型,首先综合考虑配电电缆的特点来确定评估的指标,并根据状态量的相关性来进行分层划分;然后根据模糊隶属度函数来量化电缆状态的模糊性和不确定性,并利用层次分析法合理的分配权重;最后用修正的证据理论来进行证据的融合,降低了证据的冲突程度。通过现场的运行数据分析,改进后的状态评估模型能有效的反映电缆的状态。

The distribution cable line occupies a large proportion in the distribution network,and the condition maintenance is an effective means to ensure the reliability of the power supply.By evaluating the health status of the cable,the maintenance strategy can be scientifically formulated and the maintenance efficiency can be improved.This paper proposes a practical method for evaluating the state of health of cables,and establishes a model for evaluating the state of health of cables.First,the characteristics of distribution cables are comprehensively considered to determine the evaluation indicators,and they are divided into layers according to the correlation of state quantities.The fuzzy membership function is used to quantify the ambiguity and uncertainty of the cable state,and the the analytic hierarchy is used to distribute the weights reasonably.Finally,the revised evidence theory is used to fuse the evidence,which reduces the conflict degree of the evidence.Through field operation data analysis,the improved condition evaluation model can effectively reflect the condition of the cable.