中国社保缴费负担究竟有多重:以城镇职工养老保险为例

How Heavy is China’s Social Insurance Premium:Taking Basic Pension Insurance for Urban Employees as an Example

本文基于地级行政区、企业、个人三个层面的数据,测算城镇职工养老保险的实际费率,并分析缴费负担在各社会群体间的分布。测算显示:在政策费率为28%的情况下,地级行政区养老保险实际费率为17.6%;企业养老保险实际费率为11.1%;个人养老保险实际费率为11.3%(排除灵活就业为10.4%)。可见在个人缴费负担较高的同时,在地区和企业层面却出现了缴费基数不实、实际费率低于政策费率的问题。同时,对三个层次实际费率的回归分析显示:地级行政区层面养老保险实际费率的差异主要体现在不同经济发展水平和不同收入水平的城市之间;企业层面养老保险实际费率的差异体现在不同规模、所有制、生产要素密集类型、存续时间的企业之间;个体层面的养老保险费率差异主要表现在不同收入、年龄、单位所在产业的个体之间。因此,税务征收社保费会在总体水平上增加企业成本,但不同类型企业受影响的程度不同。东部企业、小企业、非国有企业、劳动密集型企业、成立时间较短的企业所受影响较大。本文的贡献在于:首次分别测算了地级行政区、企业、个人的养老保险缴费负担,并分析了不同层面实际费率差异分布情况,揭示了中国养老保险缴费负担“总体虽然不重,但分布却有欠公平”的根本问题,论证了社保征缴体制改革和中央统筹养老金的必要性和迫切性。

This article,based upon the data from prefectural,enterprise and individual level,calculates the actual premium rate of urban workers’endowment insurance and analyzes the distribution of burden among social groups.The calculation shows that the actual premium rate of endowment insurance in prefectural administrative regions is 17.6%,that of enterprise is 11.1%,and that of individuals is 11.3%(and 10.4%if flexible employment excluded).This result reveals the problems of inaccurate payment base and lower actual rate at the regional and enterprise levels,while individuals bear a heavier burden.At the same time,the regression analysis of actual premium rates demonstrates that actual rates of endowment insurance at the prefecture administrative level mainly differ among cities with various economic development levels and income levels;that of enterprises differ because of various scales,ownership,intensity of production factors and existing time,and individuals in different groups of incomes,ages and industries also bear different rates of premium.Therefore,collection of social insurance premium by taxation department will increase the overall level of enterprise costs,but different types of enterprises will be affected to varying degrees.Enterprises who are eastern,small,non-state-owned,labor-intensive or with a shorter duration are affected in a greater extent.The contributions of this article are as follows:for the first time,the burden of endowment insurance premiums at prefectural,enterprise and individual levels is measured separately,and the distribution of actual premium rates at different levels is analyzed,which reveals the fundamental problem of China’s social insurance premium,namely“not heavy on the whole,but unfair in distribution”,and demonstrates the necessity and urgency of the collection system reform and the central government’s overall pension plan.