中国玉米产业结构存在的问题与建议

Problems and Suggestions of Maize Industrial Structure in China

中国长期处于玉米供需紧平衡状态,2008年为了解决金融危机引起的农民卖粮难问题,政府实行玉米临时收储政策,连续8年的临时收储政策导致玉米产大于需、库存过高。2016年政府实行玉米供给侧改革,对玉米产业进行“调结构、去库存”,调减生产、增加消费,5年去掉了2.5亿t临储库存,也造成玉米产需缺口,导致2021年前后近两年的玉米价格大幅上涨。近年来出现了或将长期存在的玉米产不足需问题,这一问题可能导致价格大幅波动,影响玉米保供稳价;增加小麦和水稻对玉米的替代,影响国家粮食安全;增加玉米及其替代产品进口,造成进口依赖性增加。为此,政府应制定稳定的产业政策,理顺供需关系、合理产业结构,并充分利用国际市场,稳定玉米供给。

China has been in a tight balance between supply and demand of maize for a long time.In 2008,in order to solve the problem of farmers'difficulty in selling grain caused by the financial crisis,the government implemented the temporary acquisition storage policy of maize.The temporary acquisition storage policy for eight consecutive years has resulted in maize production exceeding demand and high inventory.In 2016,the government implemented the supply-side reform of maize,adjusted the structure and inventory of the maize industry,reduced production and increased consumption,and removed 250 million tons of temporary inventory in five years,which also caused a gap in maize production and demand,leading to a sharp rise in maize prices in the past two years around 2021.In recent years,there has been or will be a long-term problem of insufficient maize production and demand,which may lead to large price fluctuations and affect the stability of maize supply and price;increasing the substitution of wheat and rice for maize,affecting the national food security;increasing the import of maize and its substitute products,resulting in an increase in import dependence.Therefore,the government should formulate stable industrial policies,rationalize the relationship between supply and demand,rationalize the industrial structure,and make full use of the international market to stabilize maize supply.