基于主成分回归的广东省人均卫生费用影响因素分析

Influencing factors of per capita health expenditure in Guangdong Province based on principal component regression

目的分析广东省人均卫生费用的影响因素。方法运用主成分回归方法,从人口、卫生、经济3个方面选取指标分析广东省2005—2018年人均卫生费用的影响因素。结果根据特征值数值大小及特征值累计贡献率提取两个主成分,累计贡献率达89.17%。实际人均地区生产总值、每千常住人口有卫生技术人员数、政府卫生支出所占比例、65岁及以上人口比例、城镇化率、城镇职工基本医疗保险年末参保人数、人口自然增长率、病床使用率的标准偏回归系数依次为0.418、0.416、0.383、0.374、0.368、0.342、0.287、0.050,均正向影响实际人均卫生费用。结论广东省人均卫生费用增长受多种因素影响。

Objective To analyze the influencing factors of per capita health expenditure(PCHE)in Guangdong province.Methods The population,health and economy indexes of Guangdong province between 2005 and 2018 were chosen to analyze the influencing factors of PCHE using principal component regression.Results Two principal components were extracted according to the amount and cumulative contribution rate of characteristic value,with 89.17%of cumulative contribution rate.The standard partial regression coefficients of the real per capita regional GDP,number of health technicians per thousand permanent residents,proportion of government health expenditure,proportion of population aged≥65 years,urbanization rate,basic medical insurance participants of urban employee at year’s end,natural population growth rate,and utilization of hospital beds were 0.418,0.416,0.383,0.374,0.368,0.342,0.287,and 0.050,respectively,all of which had positive impacts on the actual PCHE.Conclusion There are many influencing factors for the increase of PCHE in Guangdong province.