丝绸之路经济带沿线16国入境旅游发展时空动态分析

Analysis on Spatial-Temporal Characteristic of Inbound Tourism Development in Countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt

入境旅游是一国旅游业发展和国际化程度的重要标志,也是丝绸之路经济带开展国际旅游合作的重要手段。利用2003-2020年入境旅游和经济增长等数据,采用旅游流、区域响应及贡献率等方法,揭示丝绸之路沿线16国入境旅游发展的时空动态变化特征,研究表明:沿线国家入境旅游流流量均有稳步发展,但国家间差异明显,多数国家表现为平稳增长,少数国家有所下降;丝绸之路沿线大部分国家入境旅游流量都有不同程度攀升,但其入境旅游流质量出现下滑态势,仅有一半国家入境旅游属于良质发展,入境旅游发展的量与质不同步;入境旅游发展的区域响应整体表现为先增长后平稳的阶段性变化态势,但这种变化国别差异较大,表现为高、中、低三种类型。入境旅游发展对经济增长的贡献率保持在5%以内,沿线各国入境旅游发展尚未形成较强互动联系,入境旅游发展还有较大的提升空间。研究结果可为丝绸之路经济带沿线各国加强国际旅游合作,推动入境旅游量与质协同发展提供参考依据。

Inbound tourism is an important symbol of a country’s tourism development and internationalization, and also an important means for the Silk Road Economic Belt to carry out international tourism cooperation. There are significant differences in the development of inbound tourism in the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt. For China’s tourism industry, mastering the inbound tourism development level of the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt is conducive to the tourism enterprises to design reasonable international tourism products, improve market share, strengthen the cultural and economic and trade exchanges between countries, and promote the in-depth development of the Silk Road Economic Belt. Based on the data of inbound tourism and economic growth from 2003 to 2020, this study reveals the spatial-temporal dynamic characteristics of inbound tourism development in 16 countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt by using the methods of tourism flow, regional response and contribution rate. Results are as follows: The inbound tourism flow of countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt has developed steadily, but there are obvious differences among them. Most countries show steady growth, and a few countries have decreased. The inbound tourism flow of most countries along the Silk Road Belt has increased to varying degrees, but the quality of its inbound tourism flow has declined. Only half of the countries’ inbound tourism is of good quality, and the quantity and quality of inbound tourism development are not synchronized. As a whole, the regional response of inbound tourism development shows a phased change trend of first growth and then stability, but this change varies greatly from country to country, showing three types: high, medium and low. The contribution rate of inbound tourism development to economic growth remains within 5%. The inbound tourism development of countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt has not yet formed a strong interaction, and there is still much room for improvement. The research results provide a reference for countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt to strengthen international tourism cooperation and promote the coordinated development of inbound tourism volume and quality.