产业结构变迁视角下旅游发展对经济增长的影响——基于中国2000-2020年省级面板数据的实证检验

Impact of Tourism Development on Economic Growth from the Perspective of Industrial Structure Change——The Empirical Test Based on China’s Provincial Panel Data from 2000 to 2020

产业结构是影响经济增长的重要因素,目前国内将产业结构、旅游发展与经济增长纳入同一研究框架的文献比较缺乏。文章在厘清产业结构变迁、旅游发展与经济增长相互作用机理的基础上,利用中国2000-2020年省级平衡面板数据,实证检验了产业结构变迁、旅游发展与经济增长的线性与非线性特征。研究发现,旅游发展、产业结构变迁均与经济增长显著正相关,产业结构变迁在旅游发展促进经济增长中的调节作用明显,且产业结构合理化表现为显著的抑制作用,产业结构高级化呈现显著的强化作用。此外,产业结构合理化的最优门槛值最大为-0.201 0,而产业结构高级化的最优门槛值最小为0.807 4,地区内产业结构差异是导致旅游发展对经济增长的影响效应不同的重要原因。因此,应继续推进区域旅游发展战略,依托产业结构的调节作用,提升旅游发展的经济增长效应。

Industrial structure change and tourism development are important factors in economic growth. However, these is little research on industrial structure change, tourism development and economic growth in China. Based on the existing research, this paper analyzes the mechanism of industrial structure change, tourism development and economic growth. It indicates that industrial structure change affects economic growth through factor allocation effect and productivity growth effect, and tourism development affects economic growth through spillover effect. Finally, industrial structure change has adjustment effect on tourism development, while tourism development has feedback effect on industrial structure change.Then, this paper empirically examines the linear and nonlinear characteristics of industrial structure change, tourism development and economic growth by using provincial balanced panel data from 2000 to 2020 in China. The results show that both tourism development and industrial structure change significantly promote the economic growth, and the promoting effect is mainly reflected the existence of the tourism-led growth hypothesis(TLGH)and the structure-bonus hypothesis in China. The industrial structure change has a significant moderating effect on the promotion of economic growth by tourism development, the rationalization of industrial structure shows obvious inhibition effect, while the optimization of industrial structure shows obvious strengthening effect. In addition, this paper also finds that these is a threshold effect between tourism development and economic growth based on the industrial structure change. The optimal threshold value of the rationalization of industrial structure is-0.201 0, while the optimal threshold value of the optimization of industrial structure is 0.807 4. The difference of regional industrial structure is an important reason that leads to the different effects of tourism development on economic growth.The policy implications are as follows: Frist, we should continue to promote the tourism development strategy, because the contribution of tourism development to economic growth is trustworthy. Second, the government should not only attach importance to the optimization of industrial structure, but also pay more attention to the rationalization of industrial structure. Third, we should adjust factor structure to realize of industrial structure upgrading, which can strengthen the positive role of industrial structural optimization in promoting the economic growth effect of tourism development, and alleviate the inhibitory effect of industrial structural rationalization on the economic growth effect of tourism development. In addition, we should pay more attention to regional differences and formulate targeted regional development strategies.