“双碳”目标下灾难冲击与最优减排政策选择

Disaster shocks and optimal choice of emission reduction policies under the“Double Carbon”Target

本文构建包含经济灾难风险的环境动态一般均衡模型,并结合中国的宏观经济数据,以数值模拟的方法探讨了碳减排政策与灾难风险冲击对于宏观经济的动态效应。研究表明:当资本灾难冲击发生时,总量控制政策在提振经济活力等综合方面表现略好;碳税政策对污染减排效果具有较小的政策效应,相应的福利水平下降幅度也最高;基于经济的基本面考虑,TFP灾难冲击的影响大于资本灾难冲击;总量控制政策下,技术冲击在削弱资本灾难冲击和TFP灾难对经济金融变量的负面影响方面效果最为明显。该研究可能对我国分析减排政策的DSGE模型提供新的视角。

This paper constructs an environmental dynamic general equilibrium model including economic disaster risks,and combines China's macroeconomic data to discuss the dynamic effects of carbon emission reduction policies and catastrophe risk shocks on macroeconomics by numerical simulation.The research shows that:When the capital disaster shock occurs,the aggregate control policy performs slightly better in comprehensive aspects such as boosting economic vitality.The carbon tax policy has a small policy effect on pollution reduction,and the corresponding reduction in welfare level is also the highest.Based on economic fundamentals,the impact of the TFP disaster shock is greater than the capital disaster shock.Under the total control policy,technological shock has the most obvious effect in weakening the negative impact of capital disaster shock and TFP disaster on economic and financial variables.This study may provide a new perspective for China's DSGE model for analyzing emission reduction policies.