人口结构演变和地区创新——来自中国经验数据的实证研究

Population Structure Evolution and Regional Innovation——An Empirical Study from China’s Experience

当前,中国正经历着“人口红利”消逝、生育意愿不高、人口老龄化等结构性的人口转变,那么,这种人口结构演变对地区创新有何影响。从动态与静态、时间与空间等相结合的层面来解构人口结构演变的内涵,并利用我国31个省、自治区、直辖市(数据不包括港澳台地区)的数据,对人口结构演变作用于地区创新的内在特征进行实证分析,研究发现:人口结构演变对中国地区创新发展产生了结构性的影响,其中人力资本和人口密度会对地区创新产生促进作用,而人口老龄化会阻碍地区创新,人口流动对地区创新的影响则不显著;进一步考察发现,人口密度和人口流动对地区创新具有非线性的作用关系。在考虑空间关联性后,上述结论依然是稳健的。在探析影响地区创新的传导路径中,人力资本和人口密度可以通过影响创新发展的其他因素,如外商直接投资、研发经费投入和城市化水平等,对地区创新产生影响,而人口老龄化会通过弱化人力资本积累阻碍地区创新,人口流动则可通过提高迁入地的人力资本水平对地区创新产生促进作用。

With the “demographic dividend” gradually disappearing, and a low fertility and aging population emerging, China is undergoing a structural transformation that invites a close examination of its effect on regional innovation. In this paper, we deconstruct population structure evolution by combining dynamic and static, time and space perspectives. Using the development data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government of China(excluding data from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), we examine empirically the internal features of the structural transformation of population on regional innovation. We find that population structure evolution has a structural impact on regional innovation, in which human capital and population density promote regional innovation while population aging hinders regional innovation, and population flow insignificantly affects regional innovation. Moreover, population density and population flow have nonlinear effects on regional innovation. After considering the spatial correlation, this conclusion is still robust. In the process of investigating the interaction factors that affect regional innovation, we find that human capital and population density as well as FDI, R&D and urbanization level have a synergistic effect on other factors that affect innovation. In the meanwhile, population aging hinders regional innovation by reducing the accumulation of human capital, but population flow can be a positive force on regional innovation as it may increase the level of human capital in the migrated area.