西南边境流动人口居留意愿的变化趋势研究——基于CMDS2012-2018数据的分析

Trends,Motivations and Implications:the Dwelling Willing of Floating Populations in Southwest Border Counties Based the Data of 2012-2018 CMDS

基于CMDS 2012-2018和年鉴数据,本文采用Arcgis可视化和Stata回归分析可知:空间分布上,边境县域流动人口居留意愿总体走低,与内地呈“剪刀差”趋势,局地分为“虚空化型”“稳定型”“波动型”和“聚集型”;经济聚集高于人口聚集的县域居留意愿更高。人群分型上,边境县域多吸引受教育程度低的人口。流动范围上,迁入以省内跨市流动为主,迁出以向东部跨省为主。影响因素的历时变化上,个人社会特征作用方向不一致,呈“乡迁城”“低文化”和“家庭型”,但经济与社会融合变量作用相对稳定。其政策寓意在于:“经济人”“社会人”属性共同作用于该群体的居留意愿,“逆虚空化”政策调适需推动流动人口的经济融合与社会融合。

Based on CMDS 2012-2018 and yearbook,the paper adopt the method of Arcgis visualization and Stata regression to estimate the trend and the motivation of floating population’s dwelling willing in southwest border counties.The findings show that in terms of spatial distribution,the dwelling willing is generally low with a trend of scissors difference comparing with that of the inland.The counties in southwest border can be divided into 4 categories in terms of dwelling willing,i.e.emigration,stable in dwelling,fluctuation of dwelling,and population aggregation,generally,the counties with higher economic aggregation than population concentration have more dwelling willing.The border counties mostly attract people with low education from intra province while the people with high educaiton of the local counties tend to migrate toward the eastern provinces.The influencing factors over time show a inconsistent direction with the individual social characteristics,and dwelling willing is mostly motivated by the attraction of cities,low education,and family with relatively stable effect of economic and social integration variables.It implicates that the dwelling willing are determined by the attributes of economic man and social man and the local governments should have more favorable polices to promote the economic integration and social integration of the floating population in the southwest border counties.