生育支持政策对生育率影响的国际比较及启示——兼析城镇化进程中隐性家庭代际责任对生育率的影响

An International Comparison and Its Implications to China:the Impact of Fertility Support Policies on Fertility and the Impact of Hidden Family Inter-generational Responsibility on Fertility in the Process of Urbanization

本文基于1970-2020年欧盟27国及新家坡、日本、韩国的经验数据,实证分析了生育支持政策对生育率的影响,结果显示:由于隐性家庭代际责任的差异,儒家文化传统地区与欧盟国家的生育支持政策效果差异显著。欧盟国家的生育政策显著促进了地区生育率的提升,且当生育率回升至1.5附近,生育政策的效果更加稳定;而儒家文化传统国家的生育支持政策与生育率变动之间的关系不显著。其背后反映的是不同地区家庭隐性代际责任的差异,以欧盟国家为代表的西方家庭隐性代际责任较弱,这使得生育支持政策可以更好的对接家庭生育需求,进而推动地区生育率回升;而儒家文化传统国家的强家庭代际责任使得这一地区的隐性家庭生育成本更高,导致该地区的生育支持政策效果不显著。同时,由于隐性家庭代际责任的长期性与连续性,城镇化进程中,隐性家庭代际责任对生育率转变产生了长期且显著的影响。不同地区生育支持政策效果的差异,凸显出儒家文化传统地区在提升低生育率方面面临的特殊困境,这一地区的生育支持政策需要社会支持体系的辅助,更加全面的社会保障措施,有助于系统性降低长期家庭生育成本,促进低生育率回升。

Based on the empirical data of 27 EU countries,Singapore,Japan and South Korea from 1970 to 2020,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of fertility support policies on fertility rate.The results show that due to the differences of implicit family inter-generational responsibilities,the effects of fertility support policies between Confucian traditional regions and EU countries are significantly different.The fertility promotion policies of EU countries have significantly promoted the increase of fertility rate,and the effect of fertility policy is more stable when the fertility rate rises to about 1.5.Meanwhile,the fertility support policies seemingly have no significant effect on the fertility rate in the countries with Confucian traditional.Behind this interesting contrast is the difference of family implicit inter-generational responsibility.The western family implicit inter-generational responsibility represented by EU countries is weak,which makes the fertility support policy better meet the family fertility demand,and thus promote the recovery of fertility rate.While the strong family inter-generational responsibility of the Confucian culture traditional country has greatly increased the hidden family fertility costs and make the effect of fertility support policies insignificant comparatively.As the implicit family inter-generational responsibility exist in long-term with continuity of the culture,it inevitably has a long-term and significant impact on the transformation of fertility in the process of urbanization.The differences in the effects of fertility support policies highlight the difficulties facing the Confucian traditional region in promoting their lowest fertility.The Confucian region must realize that The fertility support policies should have more effective assistance of the social support system,and more comprehensive social security system can systematically reduce the long-term family fertility costs and promote the recovery of lowest fertility rate.