基于模糊FNN-ELECTRE的政治战略决策竞争力评价

Evaluating Competitiveness of Political Strategy Decision Making Based on FNN-ELECTRE

国家政治战略决策作为综合国力的重要组成部分,在全球化时代的重要性日益凸显。国家政治战略决策主要取决于政治战略决策的竞争力,其竞争力强弱深深地影响该国国家利益的获得和维持。本文对基于模糊FNN-ELECTRE的政治战略决策竞争力评价模型进行了研究。首先,借鉴因素神经网络理论(FNN)与ELECTRE评价原理,将因素空间中可识别的因素映射到构建的政治战略决策竞争力指标模型中,丰富了因素空间知识应用的广度和深度。其次,在文献分析的基础上,确定政治战略决策竞争力与经济、文化、社会、科技、国际环境五个因素为评价指标,并在专家打分的基础上,通过三角模糊理论和模糊语义定量化各影响因素,揭示了各影响因素之间的重要程度,从去模糊化的角度对五个国家政治战略决策竞争力进行分析验证,分别对其属性值进行一致性与非一致性检验,并进行优劣排序。最后,以群决策加权样本中指标的成对差异化程度为基础,确定ELECTRE-I的偏好阈值、无差异阈值和风险阈值,分析得出,国家a3竞争能力最强,国家a2竞争能力最弱,提出了国家政治战略决策竞争力的评价体系及提升对策,为国家提升其综合实力和政治战略决策竞争力提供理论依据。

As an important part of comprehensive national strength,national political strategic decision is becoming increasingly important in the era of globalization.The national political strategic decision mainly depends on the competitiveness of the political strategic decision-making,and its competitiveness has a deep influence on the acquisition and maintenance of the country’s national interests.This paper studies the competitiveness evaluation model of political strategic decision based on fuzzy FNN-ELECTRE.First of all,by referring to the principle of factor neural network theory(FNN)and ELECTRE evaluation,the identifiable factors in the factor space are mapped to the established strategic decision competitiveness index model,so as to enrich the breadth and depth of the application of factor space knowledge.Secondly,on the basis of literature analysis,five factors of strategic decision-making,i.e.,economy,culture,society,science&technology and international environment are determined as secondary indicators,and on the basis of expert scoring,the influencing factors are quantified through the triangular fuzzy theory and fuzzy semantics,the importance of each influencing factor is revealed,five countries are analyzed and verified from the perspective of de-fuzzification,the consistency and non-consistency of their attribute values are tested and ranked.Finally,based on the degree of paired differentiation of the indicators in the group decision weighted sample,the preference threshold,indifference threshold and risk threshold of ELECTRE-I are determined.According to the analysis,country a_(3) has the strongest competitive ability and country a_(2) has the weakest competitive ability.This paper puts forward the national comprehensive strength evaluation system and countermeasures from the perspective of political strategic decision-making,which provides theoretical basis for a country to improve its comprehensive strength and decision-making competitiveness.