基于四方演化博弈的高校网络舆情演化规律研究

Research on the Evolution of University Network Public Opinion Based on Four-participant Evolutionary Game

近年来,高校网络舆情事件频发,给高校声誉、大学生价值观、社会和谐稳定带来极大的影响。网媒、大学生、高校和政府作为高校网络舆情信息中的主要参与人,他们的行为决策将直接影响高校网络舆情信息的演化。据此,构建了网媒、大学生、高校和政府四方博弈下的高校网络舆情演化博弈模型,探讨四方博弈主体行为策略对高校网络舆情发展的影响,同时给出了数值算例,利用Matlab编程对其演化博弈模型进行模拟仿真检验,分析了各个参数对网络舆情事件演化的方向和速度的影响。结果表明,影响博弈系统均衡的主要因素为政府的监管力度、网媒报道的意愿、高校对舆情事件的关注度和大学生的自我认知等,通过引导网媒、大学生、高校和政府的行为策略,有助于妥善处置高校网络舆情事件的影响。

In recent years,the frequent occurrence of network public opinion events in colleges and universities has greatly affected the reputation of colleges and universities,university students’values,and social harmony and stability.Network media,university students,universities,and government are the main participants in college public opinion information.Their behavioral decisions will directly affect the evolution of university public opinion information.Based on this,we construct an evolutionary game model of university network public opinion evolution under four participants:network media,student group,university authority and government,and explore the influence of the behavioral strategy of the four participants on the development of university network public opinion.At the same time,a numerical example is given to simulate and test the evolutionary game model,and analyze the influence of various parameters on the direction and speed of the evolution of university network public opinion events.The results show that the main factors affecting the equilibrium of the game system are the intensity of government supervision,the willingness of network media’s report,university’s attention and the self-cognition of university students.The impact of university public opinion events can be better controlled by guiding the behavioral strategies of network media,university students,universities and governments.