风险应对力——清代经济史研究的新视角

Risk Resilience:a New Perspective on the Study of the Economy of the Qing Dynasty

百年来的清代经济史研究,其不同的研究范式,都受到生产力标准的影响。本文指出,已有研究范式没有足够重视经济活动中的波动性,即风险因素,这不利于全面认识清代经济的特征和演进规律。基于学界新提出的风险应对力概念,本文首先说明生产力—风险应对力分析框架的含义,接着提出可以对风险应对力进行量化评估的相关指标,并以大分流问题为例,说明这一分析框架所带来的新启示,最后介绍这一框架对于清代经济史研究的价值。

In the past century,the different research paradigms of the economic history of the Qing Dynasty have been influenced by the productivity-centered framework.The paper points out that this framework ignores the volatility in economic activities,that is,the risk factors,which is not conducive to a comprehensive understanding of the characteristics and evolutionary regularity of the economy in the Qing Dynasty.Based on the concept of risk resilience,this paper explains the meaning of the productivity-risk resilience analysis framework and introduces quantitative indicators that can be used to measure risk resilience.In addition,taking the study of the Great Divergence as an example,it illustrates the fresh revelations brought to light by this framework.Finally,it explains the value of this framework for the study of economic history in Qing Dynasty.