基于FLUS和SSPs情景的晋江流域未来径流预估

Estimation of the Future Runoff in the Jinjiang Watershed Based on FLUS and SSPs Scenarios

以晋江流域为研究区,采用FLUS模型预测2030年土地利用情景,基于CMIP6的3种GCMs,采用QM方法降尺度得到2026—2035年气候情景;运用HSPF模型,探讨年和月尺度上未来土地利用变化(LUCC)与气候变化影响下流域径流响应规律。研究表明:(1)2010—2030年LUCC表现为建设用地和园地大幅扩张,耕地和林地减小。(2)对比基准期,2026—2035年流域在3种SSPs下年降水量、日最高和日最低气温均增加,其中SSP5-8.5下增幅均最大。(3)2010—2030年LUCC导致年径流增加,3—11月径流增加,其他月份减少。3种SSPs情景下年径流均增加,5—12月径流减少,其它月份增加。(4)与单一气候变化或LUCC相比,两者共同影响的年径流增幅最大,在SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5下年径流对气候变化的响应更敏感。本研究有助于维护未来晋江流域水资源科学管理。

The future land use scenario in 2030 was predicted by the FLUS model,and the future climate change scenario in 2026-2035 under three GCMs based on CMIP6 was downscaled by QM method.Then,the HSPF model was used to explore the future runoff response at the annual and monthly scales in the Jinjiang River basin,located in the southeastern coastal region of China.The results show that(1)during 2010-2030,the LUCC is manifested by the large-scale expansion of building land and orchard,while the area of forest and cropland will decrease.(2)Compared with the baseline period,the future annual average precipitation,daily maximum and minimum temperatures in the basin will increase under the three SSPs scenarios,and the increases are the largest in SSP5-8.5 scenario.(3)Under the future LUCC scenario,the annual runoff will increase,monthly run-off will increase from March to November and decrease in other months.Under the three SSPs scenarios,the annual runoff will decrease.The monthly runoff will decrease from May to December.(4)Compared with the single LUCC or climate change scenario,the increase rate of future annual runoff under both LUCC and climate is the largest.Moreover,the annual runoff under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios is more sensitive to climate change.This study will be helpful to maintain the scientific management of water resources in the Jinjiang River Basin in the future.