松花江流域土地利用格局演变及预测

Evolution and Prediction of Land Use Pattern in Songhuajiang River Basin

基于1980—2018年8期土地利用数据,以动态度和综合动态指数为评价因子,分析土地利用整体演变趋势,并利用CA-Markov模型预测2025年的土地利用空间分布格局。结果表明:耕地、林地是该流域的主要组成地类,耕地、建设用地面积持续增加且增加最快,水域面积减少的最快,草地、裸地、林地面积减少速度依次降低;土地利用开发利用程度逐年增加,城镇地区开发程度最大,研究期间2000—2010年土地利用流转程度最小;Kappa值为0.9459,CA-Markov模型适用性良好,预测的2025年耕地、林地面积减少,草地、水域和建设用地面积增加。

Based on 8 periods of land use data from 1980 to 2018,this paper analyzed the overall evolution trend of land use with transfer matrix and comprehensive dynamic index as evaluation factors,and applied CA-Markov model to predict the spatial distribution pattern of land use in 2025.The results show that:farmland and forest land were the main land types in the basin.The areas of farmland and construction land continued to increase and the speed of increase was fastest,and the speed of water area decrease was fastest,and the areas of grassland,bare land and forest land decreased in turn.The degree of land use development and utilization increased year by year,and the degree of urban development was the highest while the degree of land use circulation was the lowest during 2000—2010.In addition,the kappa value is 0.9459,and the applicability of CA-Markov model is good.The predicted area of farmland and forest land will decrease while the area of grassland,water area and construction land will increase in 2025.