全球天然气发展趋势与启示

Global natural gas development trend and enlightenment

2021年全球新冠肺炎疫情形势好转,世界经济缓慢复苏,能源消费恢复增长,地缘政治与金融风险交织,能源价格大幅度上涨且波动剧烈,多因素交织引起全球区域间天然气供需矛盾。通过对油气行业发展方向、天然气供需基准面、贸易量变化趋势、储量分布特征、产量变化特征等方面开展分析,预测了全球天然气发展趋势。全球天然气储量丰富,受需求增长和价格上涨双重驱动,天然气勘探开发投资回升;天然气在全球能源消费结构中的占比不断增大,将在推动全球能源转型中发挥重要作用;全球天然气供需呈现“紧平衡”格局,亚太地区成为天然气主要进口地区,预测未来天然气将超过石油成为全球第一大能源。面对未来,建议中国积极调整能源战略,增强与国际能源市场联动性,完善能源价格监测研判机制,及时调整对外能源战略合作,加强国内天然气勘探开发投入,加强多边国际能源合作,坚守能源安全底线,加快构建“增储备、保供应、稳价格”相结合的天然气运作体系,提升危机反应与应对能力,以期更好应对全球能源发展与天然气市场波动带来的挑战。

In 2021,the contradiction between supply and demand of natural gas in various regions around the world was prominent caused by multiple factors,such as the improved situation of the global COVID-19,slowly recovered world economy,resumed growth of energy consumption,intertwined geopolitical and financial risks,significantly risen and violently fluctuated energy prices.The global natural gas development trend is predicted by analyzing the development direction of the petroleum industry,natural gas supply and demand base level,change trend of trade volume,and natural gas reserves distribution and production change.The results show that natural gas reserves are abundant in the world,and the investment in natural gas exploration and development has rebounded driven by demand growth and price rise;The proportion of natural gas in the world energy consumption structure is increasing,which plays an important role in promoting the global energy transition;The global supply and demand of natural gas shows a pattern of“tight balance”,in which the Asia Pacific region is the major importer of natural gas,and it is expected that natural gas will surpass oil to become the world’s largest energy.In the future,it is suggested that China should actively adjust its energy strategy,enhance its linkage with the international energy market,improve the energy prices monitoring and judgement mechanism,timely adjust its foreign strategic cooperation in energy business,increase domestic investment in natural gas exploration and development,enhance multilateral international energy cooperation,and stick to the bottom line of energy security,accelerate the construction of natural gas operation system integrating“reserve increase,supply secure and price stabilization”,and improve the ability to respond to crises,so as to better cope with the challenges posed by global energy development and natural gas market fluctuations.