个人所得税与生育意愿关系的实证研究——基于省级面板数据的OLS回归分析

An Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Personal Income Tax and Fertility Intention——OLS Regression Analysis based on Provincial Panel Data

个人所得税与居民生育意愿互相影响。在现有理论研究的基础上,基于2010—2019年中国省级面板数据,运用OLS回归分析对个人所得税与生育意愿的关系展开实证研究。研究发现,个人所得税与生育意愿之间存在着线性相关关系,且个人所得税与生育意愿呈负相关影响。优化个人所得税制度,对于构建生育友好型社会,推动三孩时代的来临具有重要意义。

Personal income tax and residents’desire to have children influence each other.Based on the existing theoretical research and the provincial panel data from 2010 to 2019,this paper uses OLS regression analysis to conduct an empirical study on the relationship between personal income tax and fertility intention.The results show that:there is a linear correlation between personal income tax and fertility intention,and there is a negative correlation between personal income tax and fertility intention.Optimizing the personal income tax system is of great significance for building a fertility friendly society and promoting the coming of the three-child era.