中国碳排放效率的时空联系、非均质发展与收敛性分析——基于区域战略视角

Spatial-Temporal Relationship,Heterogeneous Development and Convergence Analysis of Carbon Emission Efficiency in China-Based on the Perspective of Regional Strategy

为了提高减碳政策和战略区域特点的契合度,并引起地方政府对碳排放效率的空间相关性的关注,文章基于区域战略视角,采用非期望产出的SBM-Undesirable模型对2007—2017年全国24个省市的碳排放效率进行测算,同时运用Moran’s I指数、Dagum基尼系数、σ收敛和β收敛来分析考察不同战略区域间的空间相关性、地区差异程度和收敛性,结果表明:一是我国整体碳排放效率曲线出现“Z”型走势,近期呈现缓慢上升趋势但也表现出较大的区域差异性;二是空间Moran’s I指数表明,中国碳排放效率的空间相关性在逐年增强,空间依赖性和异质性并存且空间依赖性更明显;三是战略区域间的碳排放效率差异在逐年扩大,其中地区间差异是主要的差异来源,其平均贡献率超过50%;四是各大战略区域之间没有明显的σ收敛特征,但却表现出绝对β收敛和条件β收敛趋势,说明低水平地区的“赶超效应”较强,各地在向着自身稳态水平收敛。未来地方政府应该重视区域发展差异,因地制宜探索绿色发展模式;利用碳排放效应的空间相关性,发挥战略地区的政策辐射效应和引领作用,由点及面带动全国各地实现高质量发展。

In order to improve the fit between carbon reduction policies and strategic regional characteristics,and raise the local government’s attention to the spatial correlation of carbon emission efficiency,this paper used the SBM-Undesirable model of unexpected output to calculate the carbon emission efficiency of 24 provinces and cities in China from 2007 to 2017.At the same time,Moran’S I index,Dagum Gini coefficient,αconvergence andβconvergence were used to analyze spatial correlation,degree of regional deviation and convergence among different strategic regions.The results show that China’s overall carbon emission efficiency curve demonstrates a“Z”trend,with a slow upward trend recently as well as great regional differences.The spatial Moran’S I index shows that the spatial correlation of carbon emission efficiency in China is increasing year by year.Besides,spatial dependence and heterogeneity coexist and spatial dependence is more obvious.The difference of carbon emission efficiency between regions is increasing year by year,and the difference between regions is the main reason,with average contribution rate over 50%.There is no obviousσconvergence characteristic among the big strategic regions,yet it shows absoluteβconvergence and conditionalβconvergence,which indicates that the“catch-up effect”in low-level regions is strong,and all regions are converging towards their own steady-state level.In the future,local governments should attach importance to regional development differences and explore green development models according to local conditions,make use of the spatial correlation of carbon emission effect,give play to the policy radiation effect and leading role of strategic areas,and drive all parts of the country to achieve high-quality development.