基于线上数据的中国省域旅游流网络结构特征与空间效应研究

Research on Network Structure Characteristics and Spatial Effects of ProvincialTourism Flow in China Based on Online Data

以携程旅游网数据为例,通过社会网络分析法讨论中国省域旅游流的网络结构特征,包括整体和个体网络结构、结构洞、核心—边缘和块模型分析;通过探索性空间分析研究中国省域旅游流的空间效应,并利用空间计量模型探讨其影响因素。研究发现:相比传统数据源和引力模型测算的结果,线上旅游市场省域旅游合作与交流程度更高;中国省域旅游流网络结构总体上较为紧密,各省份间普遍存在关联关系。东部省份的网络中心度高于中西部省份,除东部的北京、上海、天津、江苏、福建、浙江外,西部的陕西也是网络中心度较高的省份,这些省份在旅游流网络中具有更强的影响力。北京、上海、天津、江苏在旅游网络中属于核心区,互通程度高,其他省份属于边缘区,网络连接相对不紧密。净受益板块主要集中在东部地区,西部地区属于净溢出板块,经纪人和双向溢出板块在东中西部省份均有分布。省域旅游流具有明显的季节效应,“五一”、暑期、“十一”三个时间段的出游人数较多,且旅客选择出游的热点地区也随时间变化。空间计量分析表明,省域旅游流存在空间溢出效应,即相邻省份旅游流能够相互促进发展。扩散效应区主要集中在中国的东部地区,而低低聚集区主要分布在西部地区。中心度、数字经济发展水平及旅游资源禀赋性均对省域旅游流强度发挥正向作用,其中省域数字经济发展水平每增加1%,省域旅游接待人数相应增加0.2%以上。

Taking Ctrip tourism network data as an example,the network structure characteristics of China’s provincial tourism flow is analyzed through social network analysis,including overall and individual network structure,structural hole,Core-Periphery and block model analysis.Through exploratory spatial analysis,the spatial effect of provincial tourism flow in China is studied,and the spatial econometric model is used to explore its influencing factors.It finds that,the provincial tourism flow in China has spatial differences,the number of tourists and tourism income in the eastern region is significantly higher than that in the western regions.Compared with the results of traditional data sources and gravity model,the degree of provincial tourism cooperation and exchange in the online tourism market is higher.The overall network structure of provincial tourism flow in China is relatively close on the whole,and there is a general correlation between provinces.The network centrality of eastern provinces is higher than that of central and western provinces.In addition to Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Jiangsu,Fujian and Zhejiang in the East,Shaanxi in the west is also a province with high centrality.These provinces have a stronger influence in the tourism flow network.Among them,Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin and Jiangsu belong to the core areas in the tourism network,with a high degree of connectivity,which plays a radiating and driving role in the development of tourism flow.Due to factors such as geographical location and economic conditions,the development of tourism in other provinces is relatively lagging behind.They are in a marginal position in the tourism flow network,and the network connection is relatively weak.In terms of block model analysis,31 provinces in China are divided into 4 plates according to the spatial network correlation of tourism flow.Among them,the net benefit plate is mainly concentrated in the eastern region,and the provinces play a central role in the tourism flow network,which has a siphon effect on the surrounding provinces.Brokers and two-way spillover plates are distributed in the eastern,central and western provinces,and play the role of“intermediary”and“guidance”in China’s tourism flow network.The provinces in these two plates are easier to promote the closer relationship between tourism flows.The net spillovers are mainly distributed in the western regions of China,and these provinces are relatively weak in attracting tourists from other provinces.Provincial tourism flow has obvious seasonal effects.The three time periods of May Day,summer vacation and National Day have the largest number of tourists,the hot spots that tourists choose to travel will also change with time.Spatial econometric analysis shows that there is a spatial spillover effect in provincial tourism flows,that is,tourism flows in neighboring provinces can promote each other’s development.The diffusion effect area is mainly concentrated in the eastern region of China,while the low concentration area is mainly distributed in the western region.The results of the spatial lag model show that the point degree centrality,close centrality,intermediary centrality,the development level of digital economy and the endowment of tourism resources all play a positive role in the intensity of provincial tourism flow.For each 1%increase in the development level of provincial digital economy,the number of provincial tourism reception will increase by more than 0.2%.The research will help the local government to formulate corresponding tourism guidance policies based on objective factors and development status,promote the coordinated development of tourism economy in various provinces,and narrow the differences in tourism development in the eastern,central and western regions.