中国石油企业海外业务风险评价及优化策略

Risk Evaluation of Overseas Business for Chinese Oil Companies and Related Optimized Strategies

中国石油企业“走出去”已近30年,经过探索发展、快速发展、规模发展和优化调整4个阶段后,已成为国际油气行业的重要力量和保障国家能源安全的重要途径。新冠肺炎疫情的蔓延以及俄乌冲突及其外溢效应,导致世界经济形势、国际能源格局、全球油气合作态势以及区域、资源国政治经济走势发生深度变化并呈不规律方式演进,有必要结合区域和国家实际情况,对中国石油企业海外业务风险开展研究分析。按照全球42个重点资源国的五大油气合作区进行分类,从发展水平、商贸环境、能源形势、政治外交4个维度,采用全球竞争力、投资自由度、油气储量、油气产量、营商环境、能源转型和政权稳定性等16个指标,建立了有针对性的风险评价指标体系,采用熵权TOPSIS模型更为客观地确立了指标权重并对5个区域和各资源国风险进行排序。根据分析评价结果,考虑国际国内形势预判,结合中国石油企业自身海外业务特点,分区域提出中国石油企业海外业务不同的业务发展战略及其经营策略优化路径。

It has been almost three decades since Chinese oil companies began to“go global”.After such four periods as exploration,rapid development,scaled development,as well as optimization and adjustment,Chinese oil companies have become the key forces of the global oil and gas industry and also the major power to guarantee the national energy security.The spread of COVID-19,the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and its spillover effects have jointly led to profound changes in the world economic situation,the international energy pattern,global oil and gas cooperation,and the political and economic trends of regions and host countries of resources,which are evolving in an irregular manner.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out research and analysis on the overseas business risks faced by Chinese oil companies.Categorized by the five major oil and gas cooperative areas among 42 key host countries of resources in the world,the paper focuses on such four perspectives as development level,commerce climate,energy situation,and politics and diplomacy,while adopting 16 indicators including global competitiveness,freedom of investment,oil and gas storage,oil and gas yield,business climate,energy transformation,as well as the stability of regime.It establishes the targeted system of risk evaluation index and identified the index weight by way of the entropy-weighting TOPSIS model more objectively.Meanwhile,the paper ranks the risks of the five areas and host countries of resources herein.Based on the result of the evaluation,given the situation prediction at home and abroad along with the features of the overseas businesses of Chinese oil companies,it proposes differentiated business development tactics and related optimization paths concerning the operating strategies for Chinese oil companies to conduct their overseas businesses.