输气管道半定量风险评价分析

Analysis of the Semi-quantitative Risk Evaluation of Gas Transmission Pipeline

对管道开展风险评价,并根据评价结果进行决策,可使管道的管理更具科学性。建立了半定量风险评价模型,对评价模型中采用的失效可能性指标、失效后果指标、风险等级、风险计算方法进行了详细说明。为系统地识别某输气管道运行中面临的风险因素,掌握管道风险现状,对某输气管道使用了基于肯特评价法编制的RiskScoreTP半定量风险评价软件,该软件可通过系统分析管道本体及管道相关数据,计算管道全线风险水平,明确管道沿线各段风险等级,找出管道的高风险管段和潜在的高风险因素,用于直接指导管道风险管理控制。通过基于RiskScoreTP的评价,得出影响该输气管道失效可能性的主导因素为外腐蚀、制造与施工缺陷、内腐蚀,经评价,该输气管道整体风险等级为低风险,部分管段为中等风险,1个存在凹陷的管段为较高风险。针对评价结果有针对性的制定了管道维护维修措施,降低了管道风险隐患,提高了管道的安全性。

Carrying out risk assessment of pipeline and making decisions according to evaluation results could make the management of pipelines more scientific.A semi-quantitative risk evaluation model is established,and as a result,the failure possibility index,failure consequence index,risk grade and risk calculation method used in the evaluation model are described herein in detail.In order to systematically identify the risk factors in the operation of a gas transmission pipeline and understand the risk status of the pipeline,the semi-quantitative risk assessment software RiskScoreTP based on the Kent evaluation method is adopted for a gas transmission pipeline.By systematically analyzing the pipeline body and pipeline-related data,the software can be used to calculate the risk level of the whole pipeline,clarify the risk levels of each section along the pipeline,and locate the high-risk sections and potential high-risk factors of the pipeline,which can be adopted to directly guide the pipeline risk management and risk control.On the basis of RiskScoreTP evaluation,it is concluded that the main factors affecting the failure possibility of the gas pipeline are external corrosion,manufacturing and construction defects as well as internal corrosion.In addition,the overall risk level of the gas transmission pipeline is assessed as low risk,some pipe segments are at medium risk,and one pipe segment with sag is at high risk.According to the evaluation results,the pipeline maintenance measures are formulated to reduce the pipeline risks and improve the safety of the pipeline.