医疗资源配置效率测度与动态演进研究——基于DEA-Malmquist指数模型和马尔科夫链方法

The Measurement and Dynamic Evolution of Medical Resource Allocation Efficiency——A Study Based on DEA-Malmquist Model and Markov Chain Method

本文选取2009—2020年我国31个省(区、市)的面板数据,采用DEA-Malmquist指数模型对我国医疗资源配置效率进行测度,基于马尔科夫链方法对我国各省(区、市)医疗资源配置效率的动态演进特征进行研究,为进一步优化我国医疗资源配置提供理论依据。结果显示,样本期间我国各省(区、市)的医疗资源配置效率在多数年度都出现不同程度的下降,2019—2020年由于新冠肺炎疫情的暴发,医疗资源配置效率相比其他时间段来说下降的幅度更大;除了2019—2020年的特殊时期外,我国各省(区、市)的医疗资源配置效率具有一定的稳定性,医疗资源配置效率向其他水平类别转移的概率较小,同时我国医疗资源配置效率具有较明显的空间溢出效应,医疗配置水平在空间上具有一定的联系性而不是相互独立的。

This paper selects the panel data of 31 provinces(autonomous regions, municipalities) in China from 2009 to 2020 to analyze the efficiency of medical resources allocation in China with the DEA-Malmquist index model, and the Markov chain method is used to study the dynamic evolution of the efficiency of medical resources allocation, so as to provide theoretical basis for further optimizing the allocation of medical resources in China. The results show that in the sample period, the efficiency of medical resource allocation in all provinces in China decreases to different degrees in most years, and the decline is larger in 2019-2020 than in other periods due to the outbreak of COVID-19. Except the special period of 2019-2020, medical resource allocation efficiency of various provinces in our country has certain stability,with small probability of the efficiency transferring to other level categories. At the same time the medical resources allocation efficiency has obvious spatial spillover effects, and the medical resources allocation in different places is not independent of each other, but is linked spatially.