新冠肺炎疫情经济运行和财政运行相关性研究——基于安徽省的经济财政运行分析

Research on the Correlation between Economic Operation and Financial Operation during the Initial Period of COVID-19

新冠肺炎疫情作为全球范围内的突发公共卫生事件,对全球经济产生长期而深重的影响。在新冠肺炎疫情的第一年,2020年,国内经济经历了特殊的“V”型走势,财政运行也出现较大波动。为研究特殊时期下经济运行与财政运行在省级层面上的相互作用,本文采用区域比较、行业比较、结构间比较等方法,研究经济波动对财政的影响,新经济增长点的税收变现、非税收入影响、财政支出结构变动。结果表明:经济下滑对财政收入产生较大影响,新兴领域的经济增长在财政上的实际变现能力各有不同,策略性的财力下沉和支出结构调整成为刺激经济恢复的重要途径。本文并对疫情常态化防控时期财政运行的薄弱环节提出建议。

As a global public health emergency, COVID-19 has had a long-term and profound impact on the global economy. In the first year of the outbreak, 2020, the domestic economy experienced a special V-shaped trend, and the financial operation also experienced great fluctuations. In order to study the interaction between economic operation and financial operation at the provincial level in a special period, this paper uses the methods of regional comparison, industry comparison and inter-structure comparison to study the impact of economic fluctuations on finance, the impact of new economic growth points on tax realization, non-tax income and the change of financial expenditure structure. The results show that the economic downturn has a great impact on the fiscal revenue. The actual fiscal liquidity of economic growth in emerging areas is different.Strategic financial sinking and expenditure structure adjustment have become important ways to stimulate economic recovery. This paper also puts forward suggestions on the weak links of financial operation during the period of normalized epidemic prevention and control.