中国31个省(区、市)21世纪以来耕地利用转型时空演变分析

Spatial and temporal evolution of arable land use in 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)of China since the 21st century

【目的】分析中国耕地利用转型的时空演化和趋势,为耕地利用转型与保护提供理论参考。【方法】采用熵值法、时间突变点检验和耦合协调度模型探究耕地利用转型情况、突变点和时空演变。【结果】从时间上看,中国各省(区、市)耕地利用转型空间、功能和模式转型指数总体偏低但持续增长,耕地利用转型发展较慢、水平较低;2010年前,除天津市、上海市、浙江省、福建省、陕西省和新疆维吾尔自治区外,中国各省(区、市)耕地利用综合转型初步实现,但转型指数偏低,尚有较大提升空间。从空间上看,中国耕地利用转型基本形成以东部地区为主的高值区及西部地区为核心的低值区并存的空间格局,耕地利用转型空间迁移呈现东北—西南转移格局,地区差异明显。耕地利用转型空间、功能和模式3个子系统耦合较好,但失调现象日益凸显。总体来看,耕地利用转型发展潜力较大,三者相互促进,且耦合协调度在空间上有“向西”转移的趋势,存在一定的非均衡趋势。【结论】中国21世纪以来耕地利用转型在时空上呈现“西移”趋势,耕地利用转型3大子系统耦合较好,但失调现象日益凸显,存在一定的非均衡性。因此,应实施从东部发达地区到西部传统农业区的多样性、差别性和调控性的发展战略,加强耕地利用转型空间、功能和模式转型3个子系统之间的联动和协调作用,激活农业发展相关要素和推动农业现代化发展,实现耕地高质量利用。

【Objective】The present paper aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution and trend of arable land utilization transformation in China,and to provide a theoretical reference for the transformation and protection of arable land utilization.【Method】The transformation of arable land utilization,mutation point and spatio-temporal evolution were explored by entropy value method,temporal mutation point test and coupling coordination degree model.【Result】From the perspective of time,the transformation index of cultivated land utilization transformation space,function and model in various provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China was generally low but continued to grow,and the transformation and development of arable land utilization was slow and low.Before 2010,in addition to Tianjin,Shanghai,Zhejiang,Fujian,Shaanxi and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,the comprehensive transformation of arable land utilization in various provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China was initially realized,but the transformation index was low,and there was still much room for improvement.From a spatial point of view,the transformation of arable land utilization in China has basically formed a spatial pattern in which the high-value areas mainly in the eastern region and the low-value areas in the western region as the core coexist,and the spatial migration of arable land utilization transformation showed a northeast-southwest transfer pattern,and the regional differences were obvious.The three subsystems of arable land utilization transformation space,function and mode were well coupled,but the imbalance phenomenon was becoming increasingly prominent.Overall,the transformation and development potential of arable land utilization was large,the three promoted each other,and the coupling coordination degree had a trend of‘westward’transfer in space,and there was a certain unbalanced trend.【Conclusion】The transformation of arable land use showed a trend of‘westward shift’in space and time,and the three major subsystems of the transformation of arable land use were well coupled,but the phenomenon of dysfunction was increasingly prominent,and there was a certain degree of unevenness.Therefore,the development strategy of diversity,differentiation and regulation from the developed areas in the east to the traditional agricultural areas in the west should be implemented,to strengthen the linkage and coordination role between the 3 subsystems of spatial,functional and modal transformation of arable land use,activate factors related to agricultural development,promote the modernization of agriculture,and then achieve high-quality utilization of arable land.