基于MOP-PLUS模型的新疆阿克苏地区土地利用景观格局优化及多情景模拟

Optimization of land use landscape pattern and multi scenario simulation in Aksu region of Xinjiang based on MOP-PLUS model

【目的】以新疆阿克苏地区为研究对象,探讨阿克苏地区2030年多情景下的土地利用变化。【方法】基于PLUS模型针对阿克苏地区模拟3不同情景下的土地利用,即自然发展情景、经济发展情景和生态保护情景,揭示2030年阿克苏地区的未来土地利用情况。进而在以上3种情景的极端发展条件下做出尝试,使用MOP模型提出可持续发展情景,在区域尺度上进行多情景之间的空间结构优化。【结果】阿克苏地区2030年在自然发展情景下以耕地和裸地增加为主,耕地、草地、人造地表与裸地之间的大量转换是自然发展情景下土地转换的主要方式,除灌木地和冰川维持稳定外,林地、草地、湿地、水体和人造地表面积均呈现减少态势。经济发展情景的设置是令耕地与人造地表快速扩张达到最优经济效益的目的,耕地主要由大量草地与裸地转化而来,而人造地表的增加由耕地、裸地、草地、林地和水体转化而来,此情景下耕地与人造地表的增加值在3种模拟情景中处于首位。生态保护情景目的是保护阿克苏地区的生态用地,该情景下的生态用地相较于前2种情景增加值最高。而在此基础上提出的可持续发展情景是对以上3种情景的一个权衡,即最优的土地利用配置方案。【结论】未来的土地利用方式不能仅靠单一指标发展,对经济、生态等因素进行权衡方能进行可持续的土地利用。

【Objective】Taking Aksu region in Xinjiang as the research object,the paper aimed to discuss the land use change in Aksu region in the future 2030.【Method】The plus model was used to simulate the land use in Aksu region under three different scenarios,namely natural development scenario,economic development scenario and ecological protection scenario,revealing the future land use situation in Aksu region in 2030.Then,under the extreme development conditions of the above three scenarios,the study tried to use the mop model to put forward the sustainable development scenario,and optimized the spatial structure of multiple scenarios on the regional scale.【Result】In the natural development scenario of Aksu region in 2030,the increase of cultivated land and bare land will be the main way of land conversion.The conversion between cultivated land,grassland,artificial surface and bare land will be the main way of land conversion under the natural development scenario.Except for the stability of shrubland and glacier,the area of forest land,grassland,wetland,water body and artificial surface will decrease.The setting of economic development scenario was to make the rapid expansion of cultivated land and artificial surface reached the goal of optimal economic benefits.Cultivated land was mainly transformed from a large number of grasslands and bare land,while the increase of artificial surface was transformed from cultivated land,bare land,grassland,forest land and water.The added value of cultivated land and artificial surface under this scenario was the first in the three simulation scenarios.The purpose of the ecological protection scenario was to protect the ecological land in Aksu region.The ecological land under this scenario had the highest added value compared with the first two scenarios.The sustainable development scenario proposed on this basis was a trade-off between the above three scenarios,that was,an optimal land use allocation scheme.【Conclusion】The future land use pattern can not be developed only by a single indicator,and sustainable land use can only be achieved by balancing economic,ecological and other factors.