“十三五”与“十四五”期间宁夏畜禽养殖污染评估

Pollution Assessment of Livestock and Poultry Breeding in Ningxia during the“13th Five-Year Plan”and“14th Five-Year Plan”Period

[目的]评估“十三五”期间宁夏畜禽养殖带来的污染及预判“十四五”期间畜禽养殖对生态环境的影响。[方法]根据宁夏全区“十三五”的畜禽养殖数据及“十四五”期间预估的畜禽养殖数据,采用排泄系数法估算畜禽粪便量及化学需氧量(COD)、氮磷产生情况,在此基础上计算畜禽粪便的耕地负荷,对比分析“十三五”与“十四五”期间畜禽养殖业所带来的污染压力。[结果]“十三五”期间,宁夏畜禽养殖量总体上呈上升趋势。全区畜禽养殖所带来的COD、总氮、总磷排放量分别为123.84万、6.84万和7387.61 t。利通区处于严重超载状态,养殖污染风险极大。“十四五”期间,畜禽养殖量逐年增加,2025年全区的猪当量达2144.80万头,是2019年的2.02倍。2025年预计总氮排放量达122332.05 t,比2020年增加了51087.03 t;总磷及COD排放量分别达12671.65、251.74万t,分别是2020年的1.69和1.54倍。在2025年畜禽养殖耕地负荷预警值更是达到了3.50的高度,因此必须对宁夏的畜禽养殖进行严格管控。[结论]研究结果为优化畜禽养殖结构、推动区域畜禽养殖业绿色发展、保护区域生态可持续发展提供了理论参考。

[Objective]To assess the pollution caused by livestock and poultry breeding during the 13th Five-Year Plan period,and predict the impact of LPD on the ecological environment during the 14th Five-year Plan period in Ningxia.[Method]According to the data of livestock and poultry breeding during the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plan periods in Ningxia Autonomous Region,the emissions of livestock and poultry manure(LP),chemical oxygen demand(COD),nitrogen(N)and phosphorus(P)were estimated using the pollutant discharge coefficient method.The cultivated land load of LP was calculated.The pollution pressures during the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plan periods were compared and analyzed.[Result]During the 13th Five-Year Plan period,the production of LP was an overall upward trend.The COD,nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from livestock and poultry breeding in the region were 123.84×104,6.84×104 and 7387.61 t,respectively.The livestock and poultry breeding of Litong District was a serious overload,which caused the risk of breeding pollution.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the emission of LP would increase year by year.In 2025,the pig equivalent in Ningxia would reach 214480 million,showing more than 2.02 times that in 2019.In 2025,it was estimated that nitrogen emissions would reach 122332.05 t,an increase of 51087.03 t compared with 2020;phosphorus and COD emissions would reach 126716500 and 2517400 t,which were 1.69 and 1.54 times that of 2020,respectively.In 2025,the loaded warning value of cultivated land for LP would reach the height of 3.50,and therefore the LPD of Ningxia must be strictly monitored and controlled.[Conclusion]The results provide theoretical references for optimizing the industry structure and promoting the green development of regional livestock and poultry breeding,and protecting the sustainable development of regional ecology.