新征程中跨越“中等收入陷阱”的国际经验反思与中国道路探析

Reflections on the International Experience of Overcoming the “Middle Income Trap” and the Chinese Path in the New Journey of Development

在全面建设社会主义现代化国家的新征程上,我们面临来自各方面的风险与挑战。在各种挑战中,“中等收入陷阱”是许多国家都面临的,而有的国家能够有效地应对这一挑战并成功地进入发达国家的行列,有的国家由于应对失序而落入这一陷阱不能自拔,甚至导致社会经济发展进程的倒退。本文通过对东亚模式、东南亚模式和拉美模式的研究,比较其在经济增长、国际贸易、社会政策方面的实践,揭示了经济发展以及社会结构的转型对于实现“跨越”的重要性,以此为基础总结了跨越“中等收入陷阱”的三重路径,进而讨论了这些经验对中国社会发展所具有的政策意义。

In the new journey of building a modern socialist country,China may encounter various risks and challenges. The“middle-income trap”is a fundamental challenge toward modernization for many countries. Some countries succeeded in tackling this challenge and became developed economies,while others failed and even fell into economic recessions. This study compares the economic,international trade,and social policy practices of the East Asia Model,the Southeast Asia Model,and the Latin America Model. Our findings reveal that economic growth and social structure transformation are crucial in overcoming the “middle-income trap ”,outlines three development paths that may have policy implications for China.