中国居民旅游需求层次分析与形成机理研究——基于多项有序Logisitic回归的西安案例分析

Research on the Level and Influence Mechanism of Residents’ Tourism Demand: A Case Analysis of Xi’an Based on Multinomial Ordinal Logistic Regression

准确识别区域居民旅游需求与制约因素,是旅游业有效实施“扩内需、促循环”战略的前提。依据国际旅游经验判断,当前中国居民应以度假旅游需求为主。然而现实观察与分析却发现,中国虽已进入大众旅游阶段,但居民旅游需求却似乎并非以度假旅游为主。文章以中国西安为典型案例地,运用多元有序Logisitic回归法,探究当前国内居民的旅游需求层次及其形成机理,得出以下研究结论:(1)国内居民当前处于观光旅游需求层次,尚未进入多元旅游需求阶段;(2)单纯以人均GDP作为评判标准的国际旅游经验并不适于中国旅游发展实践;(3)国内居民旅游需求受可自由支配收入、经济稳定性及受教育程度等因素显著影响。伴随中国经济的飞速发展、社会保障制度的日渐完善和居民受教育程度的全面提升,国内居民必将形成观光、休闲及度假旅游并举的多元旅游需求层次。

Judging from international tourism experience, Chinese tourism demands should be focused on vacation tourism at present. However, through practical observation and analysis, it is found that the residents’ tourism demand does not seem to be dominated by vacation tourism although China has entered the stage of mass tourism. Taking Xi’an, China as a case, this research explores the level and influence mechanism of residents’ tourism demand based on Multinomial Ordinal Logistic Regression, and draws the following conclusions:(1) The current tourism demand hierarchy of Chinese is in the stage of sightseeing, and has not yet entered the stage of diversified tourism demands;(2) The tourism experience with an international GDP of US$800 is not suitable for China’s tourism practice;(3) The tourism demand of Chinese is significantly affected by factors such as discretionary income, economic stability, education level and tourism market. With the development of China’s economy, social security system and residents’ education in the future, it is an inevitable trend that the Chinese tourism demand will become diversified demands for sightseeing, leisure and vacation.