基于一类单周期存储的利润模型及决策损失

Profits Models Based on a Single-Cycle Storage and the Losses from Decision-making

基于允许缺货的存储理论,建立涉及订购费用的商业企业单周期利润模型,根据经济学和运筹学理论,得出相应的最优订货量公式,根据需求总量在客观上商业企业存在最佳订货量,但可能事先无法得知这一实际需求总量,若根据对需求总量的估计值制定相应的“最优”订货量,则有可能产生决策损失。对该损失进行理论分析,可使决策者对此有一个理性认识,也是对决策质量一种量化的客观评价。此外,若销售价格变动,在考虑订货量时,不可仍用价格变动前对需求量的估计值来进行决策。此方法可用于商业企业关于经济利润的“订货能力无限且不允许缺货”模型、“订货能力有限且不允许缺货”模型等单周期存储决策问题并得出相应的结论,还可扩展到关于利润的需求量为随机变量的存储理论及应用模型。

Based on the storage theory of allowable shortage, a single cycle profit model of commercial enterprises involving ordering fee is established, and the corresponding optimal purchase quantity formulas are obtained according to the theories of economics and operational research. Although according to the total demand, a commercial enterprise objectively has the optimal purchase quantity, the actual total demand can not be got in advance. If a commercial enterprise makes the corresponding “optimal” purchase quantities according to the estimated value of the total demand, the losses from decisions may occur. The theoretical analysis of the losses can not only make decision-makers have a rational understanding, but also the quantitative objective evaluation of the quality of decision-making. In addition, if the sales price changes, the estimated value of demand before price change cannot be used for decision-making when considering the purchase quantity. This method can be used in the single-cycle storage decision-making, such as “Order capacity is unlimited and no stock-outs are allowed” “Order capacity is limited and no stock-outs are allowed” model, in economic profit of commercial enterprises, and the corresponding conclusion is got. This can also be expanded to the storage theory and application model related with the demand of profits.