专利网络视角下的潜在颠覆性技术识别--以自动驾驶领域为例

Identifying Potentially Disruptive Technologies from the Perspective of Patent Networks:The Field of Self-Driving Vehicles as an Example

[研究目的]在新兴领域发展早期识别潜在颠覆性技术是发展和部署颠覆性技术的前提,对提升产业竞争力和促进经济社会发展具有重要意义。[研究方法]基于专利网络视角,构建多层分析结构识别潜在颠覆性技术。在领域层通过分阶段IPC共现网络,以网络指标持续追踪IPC节点位置变化,筛选影响力跃迁节点;将节点映射到发明层对应专利作为潜在颠覆性技术,最后在主题层基于主题模型对颠覆性研发方向进行进一步解读。[研究结论]以自动驾驶领域为例验证了模型的可行性和有效性;并发现早期具有扩散倾向的新颖技术是新兴领域产生颠覆性的内因,而新技术与较成熟技术发生融合更易产生具有颠覆性潜力的发明。

[Research purpose]To develop and deploy disruptive technologies in emerging fields,it is necessary to identify potentially disruptive technologies in the early stages,which is also beneficial for enhancing industrial competitiveness and promoting economic growth.[Research method]A multi-level analytic structure of technical field-invention-topic is proposed from a patent network perspective.At the technical field level,a time-sliced IPC co-occurrence network is constructed,and social network indicators are calculated to select the points where the transition has occurred.At the invention level,patents containing the above nodes are selected as potentially disruptive technologies.And the topic model is used to decipher the R&D directions implied by these patents at the topic level.[Research conclusion]Finally,a case study in the field of self-driving vehicles is used to verify the validity and reliability of the model.It is found that in the embryonic stage,new technologies with expansion tendencies are the disruptive drivers of emerging fields.In addition,the convergence of new and mature technologies has a greater probability of generating disruptive potential.