美国情报界国际安全威胁认知变迁及对我国的启示

The Cognitive Change of International Security Threat in U.S.Intelligence Community and Its Enlightenment to China

[研究目的]通过研究有助于了解美国情报界开展国家安全情报分析的视角和影响因素,前瞻和预判美国国家安全战略调整和情报界安全认知导向,为我国国家安全情报工作提供参考借鉴。[研究方法]基于美国情报总监办公室官网的开源资料,采用文本分析与比较研究相结合的方法,梳理美国情报界国际安全威胁认知的变迁过程,归纳主要特征与演进脉络,分析影响安全威胁认知变迁的主要因素,并进行前瞻预判,总结启示借鉴。[研究结论]在未来一定时间内,美国情报界仍会将中国视为首要国际安全威胁,重点关注国内选举安全和反情报工作,聚焦太空、生物、跨国犯罪等非传统安全和俄乌冲突、亚太地区、阿富汗局势等区域与国别安全,并将以技术赋能为主线,加强公私合作与知识产权保护。我国应以总体国家安全观为指导,从战略、技术、能力等方面不断夯实国家安全情报工作。

[Research purpose]Through the research,it is helpful to understand the perspective and influencing factors of national security intelligence analysis by the U.S.Intelligence Community(IC),predict the strategic adjustment of U.S.national security and the security awareness of IC,and provide reference for China's national security intelligence work.[Research method]This paper uses the method of combining text analysis and comparative research based on the open-source materials from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence,and comprehensively combines the changes of the international security threat cognition of the IC,summarizes the main characteristics and evolution,analyzes the main factors affecting the changes of security threat cognition,then leads to the enlightenment and reference.[Research conclusion]In the near future,the IC will still regard China as the primary international security threat;focus on domestic election security and counter intelligence work;actively pay attention to non-traditional security such as space,biology and transnational crime;attach importance to area and country security such as Russia Ukraine conflict,Asia Pacific region and Afghanistan situation;strengthen public-private cooperation and intellectual property protection with technology empowerment.China should regarda holistic approach to national security as the guidance,and continuously tamp national security intelligence work from the aspects of strategy,technology and capability.