农产品质量安全事件风险放大的时空路径研究——以“速生鸡”事件为例

Research on spatial-temporal path of risk amplification of agricultural product quality and safety events:A case study of the "Fast-Growing Chicken"

近年来农产品质量安全事件不时发生,并呈现网络放大效应,但其风险放大的时空路径尚不清晰。鉴于此,文章以“速生鸡”事件为案例,综合应用地理集中指数、Theil指数和标准差椭圆等方法探究事件时间演化过程和风险放大空间路径,并应用拉斯韦尔5W传播理论解析事件时空演化的机制与过程。结果表明:农产品质量安全事件风险放大呈现出形成期、爆发期、衰退期和反弹期的时间演化过程,并以“一线两点”的空间路径在各省域间传播,事件风险在各省域存在差异。研究结果探索性揭示了互联网时代农产品质量安全事件风险放大的时空路径,为网络风险治理提供了理论借鉴与实践启发。

In recent years, quality and safety incidents of agricultural products occur from time to time and show network amplification effect, but the temporal and spatial path of risk amplification is still unclear. In view of this, this paper, taking the "Fast-Growing Chicken" incident as a case, used geographical concentration index, Theil index and standard deviation ellipse, etc. to explore the temporal evolution process and spatial path of risk amplification of the event, and applied Harold Lasswell′s 5 W communication model to analyze the mechanism and process of event evolution. The results show that the risk amplification of agricultural product quality and safety events presents a time evolution process of formation period, outbreak period, recession period and rebound period, and spreads among provinces in the spatial path of "one line and two points", and the gap of event risk among provinces fluctuates obviously. The research results tentatively reveal the time-space path of risk amplification of agricultural product quality and safety events in the Internet era, and provide theoretical reference and practical inspiration for network risk governance.