基于面板数据的长三角城市收缩空间格局及影响因素研究

Research on Spatial Pattern and Influencing Factors of Urban Shrinkage in the Yangtze River Delta Based on Panel Data

文章研究2000年以来长三角区域各城市的收缩空间格局、演变过程及影响因素,发现长三角区域整体以增长为主,但也有少量城市出现收缩趋势且全部为县级城市。增长(收缩)在空间上表现出“中心—边缘”和“点—轴”结构特征。动态演变反映出近年来人口近域流动和新经济增长极现象。短期内人口规模的影响因素主要为生活成本、公共服务设施水平以及与区域相关的指标,长期则是经济水平。建成环境质量在长短期的影响均不显著。

This paper studies the shrinking spatial pattern, evolution process and influencing factors of the cities in the Yangtze River Delta since 2000, and finds that the Yangtze River Delta is dominated by growth as a whole, but there are also a few cities that have a shrinking trend and all are county-level cities. Growth(shrinkage) shows the structural characteristics of“center-edge”and“point-axis”in space. The dynamic evolution reflects the recent population mobility and the phenomenon of new economic growth poles. The influencing factors of population size in the short term are mainly the cost of living, the level of public service facilities and the indicators related to the region, while in the long term it is the economic level. The impact of the built environment quality in the short and long term is not significant.