地缘经济视角下中日资源贸易关系测度与分析

Measurement and analysis of Sino-Japanese resource trade relations from the perspective of geo-economy

大国是全球政经版图的主导力量,其关系性质对区域、全球发展和经济合作过程具有决定性影响,结构性变动、资源和市场高度对外依赖性引发了大国博弈新态势。在资源争夺加剧的地缘经济时代,如何平衡国家间的资源竞合关系是当今政治地理学的时代命题。以中日两国2000—2017年资源贸易为例,以库仑引力模型构建地缘经济合作强度指标,探讨中日资源贸易的地缘经济规律。研究表明:①中日两国资源贸易的地缘经济合作强度多为负值,总体上竞争大于合作,2008年后两国地缘经济关系进入矛盾与对抗新阶段;②按照竞合关系可将中日资源贸易货物分为强竞争型、波动竞合型以及合作潜力型,其中化石能源、稀有金属和农产品是影响中日两国地缘经济竞合关系的关键资源;③资本主义世界经济体系的演化是中日资源贸易关系变动的重要外因,对发展权的争夺构成两国在世界市场资源博弈的内在根源,稀有金属为中国捭阖两国关系提供了地缘政治杠杆。

Major countries are the leading forces in the global political and economic landscape. The nature and pattern of their relations have a decisive influence on regional and global development and economic cooperation. Structural changes and high degree of external dependence on resources and markets have led to a new global game situation between the two countries. In the geo-economic era with the intensification of resource competition, how to balance the resource competition and cooperation between countries is the contemporary proposition of political geography. This paper takes the resource trade between China and Japan from 2000 to2017 as a case, draws lessons from the idea of developing geopolitics and World-System, and uses coulomb gravity model to construct the intensity index of geo-economic cooperation, so as to explore the law of geo-economic competition and cooperation of Sino-Japanese resource trade.This study has shown that(1) the intensity of geo-economic cooperation between China and Japan in resource trade is mostly negative, and the overall competition is greater than cooperation.After 2008, the geo-economic relationship between the two countries has entered a new stage of contradiction and confrontation.(2) According to the competition and cooperation relationship,the resource trade goods between China and Japan can be divided into these types of strong competition, the fluctuating co-competition, and potential cooperation. Among them, fossil energy,rare metals and agricultural products are the key resources that affect the geo-economic competition and cooperation relationship between China and Japan.(3) The evolution of the capitalist world economic system is an important external cause of the change of Sino-Japanese resource trade relations. The competition for development rights constitutes the internal root of the resource game between the two countries in the world market. Rare metals provide a geopolitical leverage for China to maneuver the relations between the two countries.