生育政策调整背景下的隔代抚养与老年人劳动供给决策

Grandchild Care and Labor Supply Decision of the Elderly under the Background of the Adjustment of the Fertility Policy

隔代抚养已成为我国家庭照顾幼龄儿童的主要方式,隔代抚养是否会影响老年人的劳动供给决策,这一问题尚待回答。本文利用2014年、2016年中国老年社会追踪调查(CLASS)数据,构造DID模型,考察了“全面二孩”政策对老年人劳动供给决策的影响及作用机制。研究发现:第一,“全面二孩”政策的实施对老年人劳动供给决策有显著的负向作用,会显著降低老年人的劳动参与;第二,“全面二孩”政策对男性、受教育程度较低、农村户籍和高收入老年群体劳动参与的负向影响相对更大;第三,“全面二孩”政策的实施,预期会增加家庭中孙子女数量,从而提高老年人对子女的代际时间支持,降低了老年人的劳动参与。大力促进和支持市场正规化婴幼儿照护服务的发展,可以激励老年人提高劳动参与,是减轻社会养老压力、实现积极老龄化的重要手段。

Care for grandchildren has become the main way for families to take care of young children in China.Whether care for grandchildren will affect the labor supply decision of the elderly remains to be answered.This paper constructs the differences-in-differences model(DID)to examine the influence and mechanism of the“Two-Child”policy on the labor supply decision of the elderly by using the 2014 and 2016 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey(CLASS)data.The results show that,first,the implementation of the“Two-Child”policy has a significantly negative effect on the labor supply decision of the elderly,and will reduce the labor participation of the elderly.Second,heterogeneity analysis find that the“Two-Child”policy has a more obvious effect on the labor supply decision of elderly men,less educated,rural household registration,and high-income elderly.Third,the implementation of the“Two-Child”policy is expected to increase the number of grandchildren in the family,so as to improve the time support of the elderly for their adult children,thereby reducing the labor participation rate of the elderly.Promoting and supporting the development of standardized infant and child care services in the market can encourage the elderly to improve labor participation.And it is an important mean to reduce the pension pressure and realize active aging.