技术跨部类传导与经济不平衡增长——一个政治经济学的理论框架与经验分析

Technology Interdepartmental Transmission and Unbalanced Economic Growth——A Theoretical Framework and Empirical Analysis of Political Economy

本文将具有优先增长趋势的第Ⅰ部类进一步划分为普通生产资料部类(第Ia部类)和技术创新部类(第Ib部类),考察了第Ib部类的技术跨部类传导机制及其对第Ia部类和第Ⅱ部类经济增长的迭代传导过程,由此建立了一个技术创新部类优先增长视角下的政治经济学理论框架。基于世界投入产出数据库估算出30个国家三大部类的价值构成数据和相关变量后发现,在2004—2008年间三大部类的增长率存在一个发展中国家向发达国家的追赶期,但这一追赶窗口从2009年以后开始消失,意味着这两类国家之间的不平衡增长鸿沟持续存在。第Ib部类技术跨部类传导能对发达国家第Ia部类增长率和这两类国家的第Ⅱ部类增长均产生显著正向影响,并且对发展中国家第Ⅱ部类增长率的正向脉冲响应更为持续,从而推动着各国内部经济部类之间以及不同国家之间的不平衡增长。

This paper divides the department Ⅰ, which has a priority growth trend, into the department of General Means of Production(department Ia) and the department of Technological Innovation(department Ib), and then examines the crossdepartmental transfer of technology in the department Ib Mechanism and its iterative transmission model for economic growth in Department Ia and Department Ⅱ. The research methods of iterative relationship and departmental growth paradigm provide us with a political economy theoretical framework to analyze the growth differences between department Ia and department Ⅱ from the perspective of priority development of technology innovation department. Basing on the latest non-competitive input-output table published by the World Input-Output Database(WIOD), we estimated the value composition data of these three Departments in 30 countries, and found that the growth rate of the three major departments did have a catch-up period from developing countries to developed countries around 2004-2008, but this catch-up window began to disappear after 2009, that is, the unbalanced growth divides between developed and developing countries persists. Empirical analysis shows that: the technology transfers of department Ib have a significant positive impact on the growth rate of department Ia in developed countries and the growth rate of department Ⅱ in these two types of countries, and a more significant positive impact on the growth rate of department Ⅱ in developing countries, which drive unbalanced growth within economic sectors within countries and across countries.