基于径向基函数随机响应面法的综合能源系统概率能流计算

Probabilistic Energy Flow Calculation for Integrated Energy Systems Based on Radial Basis Function-stochastic Response Surface Method

该文提出一种基于径向基函数随机响应面法的综合能源系统概率能流计算方法。首先,推导热网节点温度方程,验证并分析混沌多项式随机响应面法和稀疏混沌多项式随机响应面法计算热网节点温度时的局限性;然后,建立径向基函数随机响应面模型并利用线性多项式扩充模型,同时改进其配点方式。在此基础上,提出适用于综合能源系统概率能流计算的径向基函数随机响应面法并给出详细计算流程;最后,采用标准算例和实际算例进行有效性验证和性能评估。算例结果表明,该文所提方法在对含热网的综合能源系统进行概率能流计算时具有良好的计算精度和效率。

A probabilistic energy flow calculation method for integrated energy systems based on the radial basis function stochastic response surface method was proposed.First,the node temperature equation of heat network was derived,and the limitations of the chaotic polynomial stochastic response surface method and sparse chaotic polynomial stochastic response surface method in calculating the node temperatures of heat network were verified and analyzed.Then,the radial basis function stochastic response surface model was established and extended by using linear polynomials,and its way of configuration points was improved.Based on this,the radial basis function stochastic response surface method applicable to the probabilistic energy flow calculation of integrated energy systems was proposed and a detailed computational procedure was given.Finally,the validity and performance of the proposed method were verified and evaluated by standard and practical cases.The results show that the proposed method has good computational accuracy and efficiency in calculating the probabilistic energy flow of integrated energy systems with heat network.