计及源荷不确定性的综合能源生产单元运行调度与容量配置两阶段随机优化

Two-stage Stochastic Optimization for Operation Scheduling and Capacity Allocation of Integrated Energy Production Unit Considering Supply and Demand Uncertainty

为应对源端可再生能源及荷端负荷需求的随机性波动对综合能源生产单元(integratedenergyproductionunit,IEPU)运行调度及容量配置问题带来的挑战,该文提出一种两阶段随机优化方法。首先,在底层运行优化问题中,通过建立各设备模型及约束条件,提出基于混合整数线性规划(mixed integer linear programming,MILP)的最小成本求解方法;其次,利用蒙特卡洛模拟生成多种随机场景,确定系统在给定容量配置条件下的成本期望;最后,在顶层容量配置优化问题中,以系统容量为决策变量,采用遗传算法调用蒙特卡洛模拟及MILP运行优化算法,实现使IEPU系统全生命周期成本最小的最优容量配置。优化结果表明:底层运行优化中储气的接入使弃光量和碳排放量分别减少5.49%和0.35%,顶层计及源荷不确定性的电力设备容量提升20%左右,更加接近实际场景,验证了所提出方法的有效性。结合参数灵敏度分析,可为IEPU系统的规模化设计提供参考。

In order to cope with the challenges brought by the random fluctuations of the source-end renewable energy and load demand on the operation scheduling and capacity allocation of integrated energy production unit(IEPU),a two-stage stochastic optimization method was proposed in this paper.First,in the bottom operation optimization problem,this paper proposed a minimum cost solution method based on mixed integer linear programming(MILP)by establishing the equipment models and constraints.Secondly,Monte Carlo simulation was used to generate multiple random scenarios to determine the cost expectation of the system under a given capacity configuration condition.Finally,in the top-level capacity allocation optimization problem,this paper took the system capacity as the decision variable,and used genetic algorithm to call Monte Carlo simulation and MILP operation optimization algorithm to realize the optimal capacity allocation that minimized the whole life cycle cost of IEPU system.The optimization results show that the access of gas storage in the bottom operation optimization reduces the light curtailment and carbon emissions by 5.49%and 0.35%,respectively.The capacity of power equipment in the top level considering the uncertainty of source and load will increase by about 20%,which is closer to reality and verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.Combined with parameter sensitivity analysis,it provides reference for the large-scale design of IEPU system.