2022年9月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in September 2022

目的评估2022年9月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。方法根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、WHO各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”、“WHO各分区一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。结果与2022年8月相比,全球月新增确诊病例下降了42.6%,全球月新增死亡病例下降了32.7%。9月新增确诊病例降幅最大区域是东地中海区和美洲区(南),分别为分别为70.6%和65.3%,其余各区降幅在8.8%~70.6%;新增死亡病例除非洲区上升0.9%外,其余各区均有不同程度的下降,降幅在6.8%~67.0%,降幅最大的为东地中海区,其中俄罗斯为全球重点关注国家,缅甸、俄罗斯和印度为9月周边特别关注国家。结论全球新增确诊病例和死亡病例9月整体呈下降趋势,但欧洲区俄罗斯,法国疫情加重,新增确诊呈上升趋势,应予以重点关注,及时沟通并调整防控措施。

Objectives To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in September 2022 and the risk of importation. Methods According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University,combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighboring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as “countries of global concern”, “countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region” and “neighboring countries of special concern”. Results Compared with August 2022, the global monthly new confirmed cases decreased by42.6%, and the global monthly new deaths decreased by 32.7%. In September,the largest decrease in the number of new confirmed cases was recorded in the Eastern Mediterranean region(70.6%) and the American region(South)(65.3%), with a decrease of between 8.8% and 70.6% in the remaining regions. Except for the African region(0.9%), the number of new deaths in the remaining regions decreased to varying degrees(between 6.8% and 67.0%). The biggest decline was in the eastern Mediterranean. Among them, Russia is a country with global focus, and Myanmar, Russia and India are neighboring countries of special concern in September. Conclusion The global daily newly confirmed cases and deaths showed a downward trend in September, but the epidemic situation in Europe, Russia, France and other countries increased, and the newly confirmed cases showed an upward trend, which should be paid special attention to, timely communicate and adjusted measures.