当前中国房地产大周期的切换与超常波动

The turning period and abnormal fluctuation of thecurrentreal estatesectorinChina

从新旧周期转换衔接的角度看,通过激活潜在的换房和改善需求,才能从根本上为新房市场的反弹注入更强的动力,相应地,短期内有效的政策就是畅通一、二手循环机制,为换房和改善需求进入新房市场铺平道路。

The current Chinese real estate industry is going through a rather complicated downward and adjustment period,with a sharp drop in the transaction volume of new houses,continued sluggish land acquisition by developers,and weak consumer expectations.At the same time,although the central and local governments have implemented a series of relaxing policies,the market effect is still relatively limited from the current point of view,and the trend of transaction volume recovery is still full of uncertainty.To a certain extent,obvious cracks have emerged in the basic institutional framework of the real estate market,which has been operating in a generally strong state over the past 20 years.On a deeper level,this period is not only a short-term market downturn,but may also be a long-term adjustment.The old model is faltering,and the dawn of the new model has not yet appeared.It can be said that the current Chinese real estate market is in the biggest transformation overthepast 20 years.