信贷需求不足还是有效需求不足?——来自衡量信贷需求七个维度的经验

Insufficient Credit Demand or Insufficient Effective Demand?——Experience from Measuring Seven Dimensions of Credit Demand

2021年以来,面对“三重压力”的冲击,我国保持信贷增长稳定性的难度明显上升,主要与信贷需求不足有关。本文厘清需求不足的概念,提出M1和M2趋势关系、企业存款定期化特征、银行家问卷调查、信贷量价组合、票据融资变化、信贷投放节奏、企业投资扩产需求比例等七个衡量信贷有效需求的维度,并分析当前信贷有效需求变化。

Since 2021, maintaining the stability of credit growth in China has become more difficultin the face of what is known as the "triple pressure", and mainly reflects a lack of demand. This paper clarifies the concept of insufficient demand and proposes seven dimensions to measure effective demand, including the trend relationship between M1 and M2, the characteristics of corporate deposits, the results of bank questionnaires, credit volumes and prices, changes in bill financing, the pace of credit allocation, and the expansion of corporate investment. It also analyzes current changes in effective credit demand.