中国是否“过早去工业化”:判断标准、基本事实与影响因素

Has"Premature De-industrialization"Occurred in China:Criteria,Facts and Influencing Factors

“十四五”期间,在内外部环境共同作用下,中国制造业将进入新机遇与新挑战并存的新阶段。只有认清现阶段中国制造业发展的趋势与特征,才能在新阶段为其找准新定位,为今后行稳致远提供重要依据。将研究视角聚焦于近年来引起众多关注的中国加速去工业化趋势,基于标准化判断方法来研判,中国尚未出现“过早去工业化”现象。从统计分析来看,中国于2012年告别了工业化高峰期,开始出现制造业份额加速下降趋势,但使用实际增加值份额衡量的去工业化速度慢于名义增加值份额衡量的速度,使用就业份额衡量的去工业化速度慢于增加值份额衡量的速度。从理论角度和事实角度深入探究后发现,需求偏好升级、相对技术增速改变、国际贸易冲击和全球价值链是近年来中国加速去工业化的重要影响因素。因此,适应需求偏好升级,着力发展新型制造产品,紧抓科技革命契机,加快推动战略新兴产业,立足贸易发展新格局,建设面向全球的高标准自由贸易区网络,理应成为“十四五”期间中国保持制造业占比稳定、增强制造业竞争优势的题中之义。

During the period of the"14th Five-Year Plan",China's manufacturing industry will enter a new stage where new opportunities and new challenges coexist under the combined effects of internal and external environment.Only by clearly recognizing the trends and characteristics of the development of China's manufacturing industry at this stage can we pinpoint its new position in the new stage and provide an important basis for its stable and long-term development in the future.China has not yet experienced the phenomenon of"premature de-industrialization",judged by the trend of accelerating de-industrialization in China,which has attracted much attention in recent years,and based on standardized judgment methods.From the statistical analysis,China roughly bid farewell to the peak period of industrialization between 2012 and 2015,and began to experience an accelerating decline in the share of manufacturing.The rate of de-industrialization,as measured by the employment share,is slower than that measured by the share of value added.After in-depth research from theoretical and factual perspectives,it has been found that the upgrading of demand preferences,changes in relative technological growth,international trade shocks and global value chains are important factors that have accelerated China's de-industrialization in recent years.Therefore,China should maintain a stable proportion of the manufacturing industry and enhance its competitive advantage by adapting to the upgrading of demand preferences,focusing on the development of new manufacturing products,seizing the opportunity of scientific and technological revolution,accelerating the promotion of strategic emerging industries,building a high-standard free trade zone network and facing the world on the basis of the new pattern of trade development during the period of the"14th Five-Year Plan".