百年未有之大变局下的新结构经济学自主理论创新

Independent Theoretical Innovation of New Structural Economics Against the Context of the Major Changes Unseen in a Century

“当今世界处于百年未有之大变局”,从世界经济格局的变化来理解这个重要论断,要想进入一个新的、稳定的、和平的世界格局,需要中国继续快速发展。要判断中国未来的增长潜力会有多大,最重要的不是看绝对收入水平,而是看发展中国家跟发达国家人均GDP水平的差距。从这一指标看,中国后来者优势的潜力还非常大。百年未有之大变局为我国的经济自主理论创新带来了重要机遇。在提出新理论时,倡导要回归到亚当·斯密研究问题的方法,即“国民财富的本质和决定因素的研究”。经济要发展,必须靠技术创新、产业升级,而决定产业和技术水平的决定因素就是要素禀赋。新结构经济学从各自国家在任何一个时点上给定、随时间可变的要素禀赋结构作为研究的出发点,来内生经济结构、扭曲和运行。新结构经济学把结构引进现代经济学的分析,实际上是对现代经济学的一场结构革命,不仅对发展经济学、转型经济学会有新的见解,并且对关系到经济运行的主流经济学的各个子领域都会有很多新的见解,这些新见解都是理论创新的机会。

“The world today is undergoing major changes unseen in a century.”We should understand this critical statement from the evolution of world economic dynamics and get to realize that China’s continuing rapid development is indispensable for a new, stable and peaceful world structure yet to be established. To judge China’s future growth potential, the most important gauge is not the absolute income level, but the gap between the per capita GDP of developing countries and that of developed countries. From this indicator, the advantage and potential of China as a latecomer is still great. The major changes unseen in a century have presented China important opportunities to form independent innovation on economic theories. When putting forward the new theory, we should return to Adam Smith’s method of studying problems, as the title of his book suggests—An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. To develop the economy, we must rely on technological innovation and industrial upgrading, which is further determined by factor endowment.New Structural Economics starts from factor endowment structure of a country at a certain point of time or varying with the time, aiming to reveal its endogenous economic structure, distortion and operation. New Structural Economics introduces structure into the analysis of modern economics, which is actually a structural revolution of modern economics, bringing new insights not only into development economics and transition economics, but also into various sub-fields of mainstream economics that have a bearing on economic operation.These new insights are opportunities for theoretical innovation.